INDIANAPOLIS

As the Carolina Panthers consider what to do with the No.1 pick in the April draft, a number of analysts have predicted they will take Auburn defensive tackle Nick Fairley.

They would be wise to tread carefully if they proceed in that direction.

In the 45 drafts in the Super Bowl era, only five defensive tackles have been the top overall pick. Dan Wilkinson was the last defensive tackle to go No.1, when the Bengals selected the Ohio State standout ahead of San Diego State running back Marshall Faulk in 1994.

Those five No.1 picks - Wilkinson, Steve Emtman, Russell Maryland, Kenneth Sims and Walt Patulski - combined to play 44 seasons and had just one Pro Bowl appearance.

Beginning with Wilkinson in '94, there have been eight defensive tackles taken in the top six picks. Only two - Wilkinson and Richard Seymour (No.6 to New England in 2001) - had sustained success.

The six others were "either disappointing or just flat-out busts," said ESPN/Scouts Inc. draft expert Todd McShay. "And those numbers really start to scare you when you talk about the No.1 overall pick."

NFL coaches and general managers say the physical demands of the position, coupled with a traditionally smaller talent pool than at other positions, make taking a defensive tackle high in the draft a risky proposition.

"It's tough because they're pushing and fighting against grown men. And that is a position that typically takes a little bit longer to mature into," Houston Texans general manager Rick Smith said Friday at the scouting combine. "They're hard to find - big, old strong guys who can run, who have body quickness, who have pass-rush ability and all those things that those special defensive tackles have."

The Panthers have never taken a defensive tackle in the first round, and have drafted only one in the second round.

Kris Jenkins, the 44th overall pick in 2001, played seven seasons with the Panthers before he was traded to the New York Jets. Jenkins has been a good player when healthy, with four trips to the Pro Bowl and three All-Pro honors.

The Panthers have a need at defensive tackle. Their rotation of Derek Landri, Nick Hayden and Ed Johnson combined for just four of the team's 31 sacks in 2010.

Experts believe this is a talented defensive tackle class at the top. Besides Fairley, who had a big junior season at Auburn after a mediocre 2009, draft analysts expect Alabama's Marcell Dareus to be a top-10 pick, as well.

"I think Nick Fairley might have a tiny bit more upside than Dareus, but I think Dareus has a higher floor," NFL Network's Mike Mayock said. "You kind of know what you're getting with Dareus."

Last year was the first time in seven years that two defensive tackles were among the top-six picks. Ndamukong Suh, who went to Detroit with the second pick, was the rookie of the year after collecting 10 sacks, while Gerald McCoy had a solid rookie campaign after Tampa Bay drafted him No.3.

Jacksonville used the 10th pick last year to take Cal defensive tackle Tyson Alualu. It was not a popular pick among fans, who hoped the Jaguars would draft Florida quarterback Tim Tebow.

But Alualu started all 16 games, finishing with 38 tackles and 3.5 sacks.

When Jack Del Rio was hired by Jacksonville in 2003, the Jaguars had a couple of stalwarts at defensive tackle in Marcus Stroud and John Henderson, top-15 picks in 2001 and '02, respectively. Still, Del Rio said the Jaguars did their homework before taking Alualu.

"He was, when you added it all up, a no-brainer for us," Del Rio said. "Everywhere we looked and asked a question, he answered it with a positive."

But for every Suh or Alualu, there are more defensive tackles like Kentucky's Dewayne Robertson or North Carolina's Ryan Sims, who had 8.5 sacks in nine seasons after Kansas City drafted him with the sixth pick in 2002.

McShay, the ESPN/Scouts Inc. analyst, said one of the problems with defensive tackles making the transition to the NFL is they're facing much better offensive linemen than in college.

"They're not used to having to fight for every inch like some other positions are. When you're a big, athletic 305-pound guy playing college football, you're going up against an offensive guard each and every down that wasn't good enough to play tackle at the college level," McShay said. "You get to the NFL, you're going up against a guard who was a tackle at the college level, but the tackle at the NFL is so good that he had to play guard."

Smith, the Texans' GM, used the 10th pick in 2007 on Louisville defensive tackle Amobi Okoye, a native of Nigeria who was 19 when the Texans drafted him. Okoye has started for four years, but has yet to develop into an impact player.

Smith said the relative scarcity of high-end interior players often forces teams to pull the trigger earlier than they might otherwise.

"If you want them and they're available, you have to take them high," Smith said. "But then there's an awareness and an understanding that it may take a guy a little bit longer to develop and produce the way you would expect a very high pick to come in and do."

Dareus, the 6-3, 319-pounder from Alabama, had an interesting take on the importance of the defensive tackle position.

"If you go back in the history of watching football, it started up front," Dareus said. "Some people were scared and backed up off the ball. But the real bulls stayed up front and played the game."