Osama bin Laden is dead, and we are wrestling with understanding how this will affect our lives and our world. First, let's take the big question - how it will affect our world - and then consider it from a more personal angle.
Al-Qaida is the largest terrorist network in the world, and it remains so, even with the loss of its most visible leader. But it is a network, not an international organization, and most of its cells operate on their own, though with rhetoric, resources, and perhaps training supplied in part by bin Laden's cadre. Much of the radicalization towards terrorism and even the training of those willing to carry out acts of terror today occur on the Internet, rather than in training facilities. This network is an almost leaderless movement already, so the loss of its visual leader, who has been in hiding for almost a decade, is symbolically significant, but will probably not affect the ability of al-Qaida cells to plan and carry out disparate attacks. The networking of coordinated attacks in different locations may be less likely, but the ability to carry out terrorism will probably not measurably diminish at once.
Take warnings seriously
In fact, the likelihood of terrorism against Americans in the immediate future is greater, as there are no doubt many who are infuriated by the death of this leader and who will view any Americans as legitimate targets. The State Department's warning about this is serious, and we must anticipate and deal effectively with a probable upsurge in terrorism in coming days. Al-Qaida in Iraq, al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, and al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula all remain strong, active cells with experienced leaders. Bin Laden's top "lieutenant," Ayman al-Zawahiri, Abu Yahya al Libi and others from his council remain active. There are active al-Qaida cells in more than 100 countries today, including the U.S. and the United Kingdom.
Death brings closure, justice
So what difference does it make that bin Laden is dead? His death brings several important changes for all of us. It brings closure to Americans who lost loved ones and friends in the 9-11 attacks. Justice is served when the one responsible for murdering thousands is punished. The U.S. can, in its war on terrorism, take pride in a job well done by our intelligence agencies and special military forces. Since both presidents who have led us since 9-11 have stated that capturing and/or killing bin Laden was a top priority, perhaps our focus on this war can now be more truly on winning "the hearts and minds" of the world, diminishing the likelihood of radicalization of youth toward terrorism.
The Arab Spring, in its movement toward a peaceful democratization of the Middle East, has already diminished the power of radical groups to incite violence in order to achieve change. Perhaps this removal of an icon for some radical cells will offer opportunity for more hearts and minds to be won in this war. With bin Laden's death, we are not necessarily safer; it is likely we will see more more attempted terrorist attacks against Americans in the near future. We cannot dance in the streets to celebrate an end to terrorism yet. But we can celebrate the potential for future "wins" in our war on terror, not with bombs or bullets but with positive efforts to encourage democracies.
Terrorists are made, not born
Meeting the challenge of terrorism with determination will not make it go away. But building an understanding of what it is, what causes it and how to talk with those who may be radicalized toward violence is essential. Terrorists are not born; they are made, evolving from a wide range of circumstances. We've taken a strong step by eliminating the person responsible for so much death and destruction, and stopped his voice in the radicalization process.
The price tag for our "war on terrorism" is already high. Bin Laden's death helps balance the scales a bit, but now we need to resolve to reach out to help those trying to build a better world in that region, working with them for justice but also for peace. With peace, we all win.
