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Real estate investment market will be erratic

Report: Charlotte 20th for commercial growth; focus on bank jobs is weakness.

By Kerry Singe
ksinge@charlotteobserver.com

Most commercial real estate activity next year will be sporadic and remain confined to a few markets in "24-hour gateway" cities such as San Francisco and New York, a new report says.

Charlotte, meanwhile, barely made the report's list of the top 20 markets, landing at the bottom spot. Raleigh ranked 15th.

Investors are worried the Queen City is too dependent on banking jobs, according to the Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2012 report, released Wednesday. The region's temperate climate and affordability, however, make it attractive to relocating businesses and retirees. Last year, Charlotte ranked 23rd of 51 cities.

The economy's doldrums and a lack of new jobs are weighing on commercial real estate, the report said, and people must resign themselves to a "slowing, grind-it-out economic recovery." More companies are relying on fewer employees and need less square footage, the authors said.

Adding to the gloom, the report predicts that more investors will put properties up for sale next year, but demand among buyers will diminish. This will push investment returns down. But well-leased core real estate will continue to produce solid, single-digit returns.

The authors advised wary investors to concentrate on cities where employment is growing, particularly those relying on energy, high-tech and health-care related industries, as well as universities and government offices.

Apartment complexes will continue to be popular among buyers, the report predicts. In addition, investors are eyeing downtown office buildings in the country's largest cities, warehouses in prominent ports and airport gateways, full-service hotels in major markets and neighborhood shopping centers serving stable infill suburban communities.

Sustainable office design is also gaining traction among tenants and investors.

"Energy will continue getting more expensive...," the report says. "It just makes good business sense to develop green."

Investors have long coveted properties in so-called gateway cities; they tend to outperform other investments because they are on global commercial routes and attract money from around the world.

Still, smaller cities can turn heads. With the University of Texas attracting young brainpower and top talent, state government jobs and medical and high-tech industries, Austin ranked No. 2 among the top markets to watch.

Local developer Ned Curran, chairman and CEO of The Bissell Cos., said forecasters for years have wrongly dismissed Charlotte.

Bissell is working on a $100 million expansion to its office park in south Charlotte that includes two speculative 10-story office buildings - the largest speculative building spree in the country.

"Fortunately for Charlotte, these forecasts have never been right about us and we have, and will continue to grow jobs and attract businesses here," Curran said.

Wells Fargo & Co. senior economist Mark Vitner said he isn't worried about the Queen City. "I think Charlotte stands up pretty well," he said. "It's the most vibrant downtown of any city in the South."

The annual outlook was compiled from surveys from more than 950 real estate professionals and is released by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute.

Singe: 704-358-5085

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