It's been a difficult year for the local economy, with layoffs, uncertainty and stagnant hiring still plaguing the Charlotte area's biggest companies. Looking ahead to 2012, economists predict more of the same.

Hopes were beginning to rise a year ago. Mecklenburg County's unemployment rate had ticked down, home sales picked up and sales tax collections climbed, suggesting consumers felt better about the recovery. But by spring, unrest in the Middle East and a natural disaster in Japan disrupted supply chains and fueled more worries.

Fear has persisted as the European debt crisis and uncertainty over government regulations and the global economy have continued.

Today, most major economic indicators are in about the same - or worse - shape than a year ago.

Mecklenburg's jobless rate, for instance, was 10 percent in October, down from the month before but no better than October 2010. Home sales fell in November from the month before, and bankruptcy filings inched higher.

"The one thing that sticks out more than anything else is that the recovery just seems to plod along," Wells Fargo & Co. senior economist Mark Vitner said. "There seems to be quite a bit less distress in the economy today, but there's not a lot of optimism."

Area economists who weighed in recently on the local economy don't expect the picture to brighten much in 2012. Yet they did find a few bright spots, saying that while a full recovery might still be years away, the worst is probably over.

Mark Vitner, Wells Fargo & Co.

There has been some improvement this year in the local economy: Foreclosures are falling, for instance, and jobless claims are declining, indicating layoffs have slowed, Vitner said. On the other hand, hiring isn't yet picking up, and there's no sign of a recovery in the construction field, one of the most important drivers of growth in the Charlotte region in better times.

"It's more the absence of bad news that stands out, rather than the sudden appearance of some good news," he said.

Vitner predicts a slow start to the new year, with consumer spending waning and many businesses putting off major decisions - including hiring - until after the presidential election.

Contributing to the slow progress are the continued housing market troubles and uncertainty surrounding economic policy, he said.

"It's sort of like fog on a highway," Vitner said. "You can drive in the fog, you just can't drive very fast."

The Charlotte area will get a boost from the Democratic National Convention next September. But high unemployment will likely persist: Vitner expects the area jobless rate to fall just a half-percentage point or so next year - and said it will probably take until 2016 or 2017 to see unemployment rates back in the 5 to 6 percent range.

Rick Kaglic,

Federal Reserve

The economy showed promise as 2011 began, but that was soon sapped nationally and locally by global problems, consumer caution, business owners' worries and the U.S. government's "inability to deal in a fundamental way with the fiscal challenges that we face," Kaglic said.

Job growth has slowed in the finance and professional services sectors, and hiring remains tight in government and goods-producing fields, such as manufacturing and construction, he said.

"In the near term, it's largely a story of same-old, same-old," he said.

Kaglic said challenges related to U.S. government debt and the European crisis will be among the most pressing in 2012.

"I don't see any solutions on the horizon yet," he said. "I think until we start to see some real solutions on those two fronts, that growth is going to remain constrained."

But there are some local bright spots. Retail employment in North Carolina climbed in November from the previous year, suggesting retailers are seeing an increase in personal spending. The hospitality sector is doing well. The recent announcement that Chiquita Brands International is moving its headquarters to Charlotte provides an economic and psychological boost, and the DNC "gives us something that we can certainly hang our hat on," Kaglic said.

"While the highest probability outcome is for more trend-line growth" in 2012, he said, "there is some room for an upside surprise."

John Connaughton,

UNC Charlotte

Connaughton calls 2011 a lost year - one where the nation avoided a double dip recession but also failed to see any real economic recovery.

"The same question we were dealing with last year managed to follow us all the way through 2011: Where are the jobs?" he said.

Going forward, he expects the economy to improve slightly but said most people won't recognize the change, as serious challenges will continue to hamper growth. Banks are still in trouble, and businesses are unsure what challenges they'll face in coming months, with questions over regulations still burdening decision-makers, Connaughton said.

"At the end of the day, you've got really a very uncertain operating environment for businesses," he said. "You've got a weak financial sector, and throw on top of that the new normal on the part of consumers and how important they are to economic growth. ... Those are the things that are holding us back."

Connaughton expects uncertainty and political gridlock, though he said some improvement is likely after the election.

In the meantime, "that's all a prescription for slow growth," he said. "I wish it weren't so."