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Jury out on NFL'S class of 2011 quarterbacks

By Joseph Person
jperson@charlotteobserver.com
  • http://media.charlotteobserver.com/smedia/2012/01/14/21/32/w1Iw2.Em.138.jpg|416

    Dalton

  • http://media.charlotteobserver.com/smedia/2012/01/14/21/32/HE3QB.Em.138.jpg|433

    Yates


From Week 1 when Cam Newton shattered Peyton Manning's record with a 422-yard performance at Arizona to last weekend when T.J. Yates and Andy Dalton hooked up in the AFC playoffs, it's been an impressive year for rookie quarterbacks.

But former NFL quarterbacks and coaches say it's too early to compare this quarterback class with those from 1983, featuring Hall-of-Famers Dan Marino, John Elway and Jim Kelly and widely considered the best in league history, or even 2004, a group that includes Super Bowl winners Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger, as well as San Diego's Philip Rivers.

Before anointing Newton and Co. as the next great class, experts say let it marinate a few years.

"They're some pretty good classes there," ESPN analyst Eric Mangini, the former Cleveland Browns coach, said of the '83 and '04 classes. "But three years from now I think we'll get a better sense of where these guys are. It's just so early to make that (determination)."

"I just think it's way too early to have any sense," added Tim Hasselbeck, the ESPN analyst who spent six years as an NFL quarterback. "Especially when you look at guys like Sam Bradford, who played in a West Coast system his first year, looked really promising, and then really struggled through injury and playing in a new system his second year. Or Josh Freeman in a similar way."

Bradford, the No. 1 overall pick in 2010, was the offensive rookie of the year last season after throwing for 3,512 yards and 18 touchdowns and leading St. Louis to a 7-9 finish. But Bradford battled injuries and inconsistency in 2011, when he completed only 53.5 percent of his passes and lost nine of 10 starts.

Hasselbeck's point: While Newton, Dalton and others certainly look like the real deal, it takes more than one season to make a franchise quarterback.

"I think there were moments for every guy," Hasselbeck said. "I just think it's way too early to have any type of judgment on where this is going to turn out for this group."

Like Bradford, Newton was the first overall pick who started from Week 1. He followed his sensational debut with a 432-yard performance the next week against reigning Super Bowl-champion Green Bay, breaking the single-game rookie record he shared for a week with Matthew Stafford.

Newton had rewritten the rookie record book by season's end, breaking Manning's mark for yardage (4,051) and becoming the first quarterback -- rookie or otherwise -- to pass for 4,000 yards and run for 700 yards in a season.

Dalton's numbers were not as gaudy, but the second-round pick from TCU led the Bengals to the playoffs following their 4-12 finish in 2010.

The three other first-round quarterbacks - Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, and Christian Ponder - were more of a mixed bag. Locker attempted only 66 passes while backing up Matt Hasselbeck in Tennessee, while Gabbert (4-10) and Ponder (2-8) posted losing records for Jacksonville and Minnesota, and failed to prove definitively they are their teams' quarterbacks of the future.

"Blaine Gabbert was, in my estimation, pretty close to being a complete disaster in Jacksonville," said Tim Hasselbeck, Matt's brother. "Then you look at Andy Dalton, and that's good. Christian Ponder had moments. And Cam, obviously, did what he did. But then you look at Jake Locker, and Jake really didn't play a whole lot."

Trent Dilfer, another former quarterback-turned-ESPN analyst, is sold on Newton and Dalton, but uncertain how the other members of the class of '11 will turn out.

"I think Cam and Andy are both going to have tremendous careers," Dilfer said. "We don't know about Jake, yet. I'm not on the Ponder bandwagon, I never was. People say he played good this year. I'm going, 'He played good for one game.'"

The only rookie quarterback still playing is among the least likely. Yates, a fifth-round pick from UNC, took over as Houston's starter in Week 13 following season-ending injuries to Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart.

Yates became the first rookie since 1968 to lead game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime in his first two starts, before the Texans dropped their final three regular-season games. But last week against Cincinnati -- in the first postseason pairing of rookie quarterbacks -- Yates threw for 159 yards and a touchdown to guide the Texans to the franchise's first playoff victory.

Yates was the lowest-drafted quarterback to start a playoff game since 1966. With a win today at Baltimore, Yates would join Roethlisberger, Shaun King, Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez as the only rookie passers to advance to a conference championship game.

No rookie quarterback has ever started a Super Bowl.

Tim Hasselbeck pointed out Yates might not take a snap next season when Schaub returns, although Dilfer thinks Yates has a chance to become the third- or fourth-best quarterback in this class.

"He was my sleeper in the (2011) draft," Dilfer said. "I understand what happened at Chapel Hill and there were times he played terrible. But his toughness, his competitiveness and then his physical traits, you can't deny.

"And given the right system, T.J. could be Matt Hasselbeck, that this is kind of the launching pad for the next thing."

But like the rest of the members of the Class of '11, it will be a few more years before fans find out.


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