Go with the team with the better quarterback. That's one theory to picking an NFL winner. Who, in any sport, influences an outcome as greatly as the quarterback?

And then, on Jan. 14, the San Francisco 49ers and quarterback Alex Smith beat the New Orleans Saints and quarterback Drew Brees. On Jan. 15 the New York Giants and quarterback Eli Manning beat Green Bay and quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

The theory occasionally takes a weekend off.

Vacation ends Sunday. Despite the edge New York has on defense, I like the New England Patriots and quarterback Tom Brady.

The Patriots are a three-point favorite. But it's tough to find somebody who likes the favorite. I'd say New Yorkers talk more loudly than the rest of us, but the Giants are playing Boston.

Brady is 34, and less than spry. New York's pass-rushers take off as if unleashed, and Brady is not going to beat them by running outside. As his offensive linemen crash and burn, he likes to step up into the pocket. But the Giants come with so many quality linemen that the opposing line always appears outnumbered.

Brady is going to get hammered when he steps up and hammered when he doesn't.

Yet I think he'll be as good Sunday as he was uncharacteristically mediocre in the AFC championship against Baltimore. Even when Brady wasn't pressured, he attempted and missed passes he typically completes.

Fans of Baltimore will contend that's because he was anticipating getting hit. They're wrong. Brady isn't fragile. I don't know if he's the best quarterback of all time or the best quarterback of our time. (I like Joe Montana as the best ever and Brady or Peyton Manning as the best in the post-Montana era.)

Brady has one more masterpiece in him, and I expect to see it Sunday.

There's no reason you should believe me other than that I picked both conference championships (the underdog Giants and favored Patriots) correctly. For the playoffs, I'm 7-3.

Look. I don't want to pick New England. I like the Giants better than the Patriots.

But if I pick a team, I pull for it whether I want to or not. I'm part Danish. If I had picked, say, Cuba, to beat Denmark, I'd cheer for Fidel and the fellows and probably complain that the refs consistently favored the land of my people.

EA SPORTS has simulated the past eight Super Bowls with its Madden NFL game, and the Madden winner has won six of the real ones. EA envisions New York's Lawrence Tynes kicking a last-second field goal and the Giants winning 27-24.

I envision a lot of points, I envision Eli Manning playing another strong game and I envision the New York rush occasionally battering Brady.

But New England's Bill Belichick is, and I say this without warmth or glee, the best coach in football, and I mean at any level of football.

Still, Sunday will be less about coaches than about Brady.

Who knows how much time and how many opportunities an athlete gets? Do you expect to see Peyton Manning, who is a year older than Brady, in a Super Bowl again?

Brady has played in four Super Bowls and won three - losing only to the Giants four seasons ago.

He last won in 2004.

I like the great ones who are not far from the end to leave the field triumphant and attain greatness perhaps for the final time.

I also like the Patriots 33-27.