My picks have been pretty good. But the showcase games, the games that some of you build your financial lives around, have failed. I know who you are. You poured that stuff on my windshield on John J. Delaney Drive, used a squeegee to remove the liquid and asked me for $3,500.

You said it was my fault you needed the cash. Not only did my Lock of the Week, the almost-guaranteed game that I pick against the line, fail to cover, but it also failed to win.

But aside from that …

It’s just a matter of execution.

Last week: 11-5

Season: 21-11

Lock of the week: 0-2

Underdog of the week: 0-2

This week’s picks, with the home team in CAPS:

CHICAGO 21, St. Louis 17: Jeff Fisher, we salute you. His Rams are impressive. They almost beat Detroit in Detroit and beat Washington at home. The Bears lack their best running back, have a volatile quarterback with a strong arm and a fragile psyche and don’t seem to know who the enemy is. But they’re at home and they’ve had 10 days to make up and prepare.

DALLAS 24, Tampa Bay 20: If the Cowboys lead as time runs out, and Tony Romo takes a knee, every broadcast in the country, including NFL RedZone, ought to zoom to Dallas. Love to see if Tampa Bay coach Greg Schiano gets cheap again, and love to see how the Cowboys respond.

Philadelphia 23, ARIZONA 20: Arizona is San Francisco light. We wondered, early last season, how the 49ers won. They won by playing tough defense and rallying behind a really good coach. The Cardinals are trying to replicate the pattern. They have one of the league’s best defenses. But I can’t believe Michael Vick and the fellows will continue to give the ball away. The Eagles are a marvelously talented group. That ought to be enough.

Houston 26, DENVER 20: Peyton Manning’s passes fluttered in the loss to Atlanta, and the Broncos were playing in a dome. I looked for those pretty spirals that helped make Manning one of the great quarterbacks of all time, and rarely found them. It’s too early to say that Manning is finished. But he has yet to become Peyton Manning, and nobody knows if he will. In unrelated news, the Texans might be the best team in the league.

BALTIMORE 24, New England 23: I hate picking against the Patriots. But they were my Lock last week, and they failed me.

The rest

Buffalo 29, CLEVELAND 23

WASHINGTON 28, Cincinnati 27

INDIANAPOLIS 20, Jacksonville 17

NEW ORLEANS 35, Kansas City 29

New York Jets 16, MIAMI 10

San Francisco 26, MINNESOTA 17

Pittsburgh 16, OAKLAND 9

Green Bay 24, SEATTLE 19

Upset of the week

Atlanta (+3) 31, SAN DIEGO 28: The Falcons have to fly all the way across the country. But I’ll take a weary Matt Ryan over a well-rested Phillip Rivers.

Lock of the week

Detroit (-3½) 29, TENNESSEE 23: Nothing the Lions have done is impressive. But they’re the Lions. They have the receiver and the quarterback, and today, for the first time since they drafted him in 2010, they have Mikel Leshoure. Leshoure was injured and then he was suspended and now he’s a running back whose ability will surprise and impress those who have forgotten. Also, the Titans are very bad.