WASHINGTON With just a day to go, this is the un-callable election.
Between daily tracking polls, punditry, Nate Silver predictions, RealClearPolitics averages and hurricanes heads are spinning with anticipation and angst.
Whos going to be the next president?
Maybe Barack Obama; maybe Mitt Romney. It could be a landslide! For either one. Or not.
Such are the discussions along sidewalks, over cocktails, in corridors and in checkout lines. What the heck is going on? Its anybodys guess.
One thing going on is information saturation that reflects and shapes reality. To what extent may not be knowable, but it cant be denied that the constant barrage of analysis, projection and prediction influences the very thing human behavior that quantifiers attempt to capture.
As of Friday, Romney and Obama were within a decimal point of one another 47.4 Obama to 47.3 Romney in the national polling average posted by RealClearPolitics. Over at Intrade, the prediction market, odds favored the president 66.6 percent to Romneys 33.5 percent. RealClear put Romneys favorability rating at 6.3 to Obamas 3.7.
Then theres political polling guru Silver, who consistently shows Obama in the lead for the Electoral College and puts his chances of winning at 79 percent.
Combining all the above in some sort of meta-analysis, facing East while balancing on one foot and slicing carrots, you have to figure Obama will be our president for another four years.
Then again, people are unpredictable. Things happen. Weather happens.
One thing we know without a study or a poll is that people tend to like winners. Thus, when one individual seems to be leading, people dont want to identify with the loser and so align themselves with the top dog.
But what if the sentiment is only toward winning-ness and not a true preference? Ever been surprised to find yourself hesitating in the voting booth? In the moment of truth, we dont so much change our mind as recognize it.
Doing the right thing is easier when youre alone with your thoughts than when someone is in your face or ear, probing your innermost thoughts. Humans dont always want their private feelings known and may respond in ways they think will cause them the least discomfort.
Even though most peoples votes may indeed be predictable owing to party affiliation, ideology or some other reason, other more-nebulous factors also come into play.
The mega-storm Sandy that is still afflicting several states, including especially New York and New Jersey, where people are hungry and bodies are still being recovered, cant be discounted as a factor. Notwithstanding New Jersey Gov. Chris Christies praise for Obama, New York Mayor Michael Bloombergs surprise endorsement of the president, (and unearthing of Romneys promise to dismantle FEMA), the mood of voters come Tuesday may not be coherent by any previous standard.
Anger at feeling underserved could turn emotions in unexpected ways. Unhappy people may even vote against their own best interests as an expression of frustration. This is, of course, assuming these people can even get to the polls.
Any or none of the above could shift the course of this election. Well know when we know. As for the two fine men vying for this impossible job, each should remember that no mandate comes with this victory. The winner of the pie-eating contest gets more pie.
Vote and good luck, America.














