I’ve been picking football games since I was in elementary school. My dad was in a pool and eventually he and his friends let me in.

I’ve had great NostraThomas seasons and I’ve had not so productive seasons. But I have never a season such as this.

I pick (alleged) winners Friday mornings for the John Boy & Billy Big Show. I’ve noticed that every week my chair gets a little smaller, my bottle of water a little warmer and my seat a little further away from John Boy.

If I miss my Lock of the Week one more time I suspect I’m out in the hall.

The Charlotte Bobcats’ defense is better than my Lock. The Big East’s future is better than my Lock. The NHL is having a better season than my Lock.

My Lock is 3-11. But my greyhound picked two of the three. On my own I am 1-9.

That means that if you bet against me your economy is thriving. But I wouldn’t advise it this week. I’m back.

Just as there are days when every bounce pass goes into the hands of the teammate breaking to the hoop, there are weeks when I can do no wrong. I feel it.

And I’m never wrong except, you know, almost all the time.

Last Week: 8-8

Season: 128-79

Lock: Missed Chicago

Season: 3-11

Upset of the Week: Houston chose not to upset New England

Season: 6-8

This week’s picks, with the home team in CAPS:

Carolina 29, SAN DIEGO 28

Name three starters in Carolina’s secondary and the schools from which they come.

TENNESSEE 10, New York Jets 9

This is the Monday night game. I’m serious. If you want an empty parking lot and an absence of shoppers hit the mall Monday night. Everybody will be at home mesmerized by the Titans, the Jets and heavily spiked eggnog. Insiders call it ’nog.

Denver 26, BALTIMORE 19

I like Jim Caldwell, the former Wake Forest and Indianapolis head coach who suddenly is running Baltimore’s offense. But it’s going to take more than the Ravens to get me to pick against the Broncos.

ST. LOUIS 26, Minnesota 24

The Rams have no stars and attract little attention. But they’re pretty good.

MIAMI 23, Jacksonville 16

You can, too, see good football in Florida. If you’re driving from Charlotte, work your way to Interstate 95, take a right before you hit Jacksonville, swing through Starke and stop when you reach Gainesville.

The rest:

Green Bay 27, CHICAGO 24

HOUSTON 33, Indianapolis 24

NEW ORLEANS 35, Tampa Bay 31

CLEVELAND 28, Washington 23

Detroit 24, ARIZONA 13

Seattle 29, BUFFALO 23

OAKLAND 12, Kansas City 10

DALLAS 30, Pittsburgh 28

Upset of the Week: New York Giants (+1) 34, ATLANTA 33

The Falcons lose games and, it appears, the qualities that made them special.

Lock of the Week: NEW ENGLAND (-5) 34, San Francisco 26

You have to be a fool to pick against New England this time of year, especially on a Monday night or Sunday night (this is the Sunday night game).

I was a fool last week. The 49ers won’t get pushed around the way the Texans did. But they don’t have the offense to hang with the Patriots.