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If the betting lines I found on an Internet search are vaguely accurate, the Charlotte Bobcats had twice the chance of winning the NBA championship this season that they will have of winning the No.1 pick tonight.
Yeah, that bad.
The Bobcats have seven chances in 1,000 of receiving the top pick in the weighted draft lottery the NBA will hold tonight (8:30, ESPN). That's roughly 142-to-1 and, from what I read, a $1 bet on the Bobcats in October would have paid $75 if somehow they won it all.
Though they finished with their best record (35-47), that wasn't enough to reach the playoffs. So they're lumped in with the other 13 non-playoff teams, in a weighted draw that determines the top three picks in the June25 draft in New York.
Those odds can be beaten. Last May, despite finishing with the fifth-best record among lottery teams, the Chicago Bulls won the top pick and ultimately selected rookie of the year point guard Derrick Rose.
Still, the Bobcats' chances tonight are remote: 0.7 percent for the first pick, 0.83 percent for the second pick and 1.01 percent for the third pick. There's nearly a 94 percent chance they end up with the 12th pick.
That's how it's supposed to be. Much as the NBA loves to market this as a game show-like festivity, the draft lottery is a safe-guard against cheating. The reasoning goes that one special player can have a greater impact in basketball than in any other sport, so it's essential to negate any incentive to tank games.
I asked Commissioner David Stern a few years ago whether the lottery was outdated, since the draft is no longer so reliable a route to success. Stern agreed the draft isn't what it once was, with so many players turning pro early, but there would always be a once-a-decade player – the next Shaquille O'Neal or Tim Duncan – that would justify the lottery.
Makes sense to me, although this won't be one of those once-a-decade drafts. The favorite to be No.1 pick is Oklahoma power forward Blake Griffin. The word most often used by scouts to describe Griffin is “solid.”
Nothing wrong with solid, but that's code for dependably good, with limited potential to be great at the NBA level. As one player personnel guy described, it would be hard for any team to pass on Griffin, because he's such a safe pick (equivalent to an NFL team drafting a reliable left tackle).
Still, Griffin might be challenged to approach the impact Rose had with the Bulls this season.
The next two picks figure to be some order of Spanish point guard Ricky Rubio and Connecticut center Hasheem Thabeet. Since center and point guard are the hardest positions to fill, those two are all the more in demand.
Rubio is such a ball-handling prodigy, he's frequently compared to Pete Maravich, but he needs significant improvement as a jump-shooter. Thabeet is limited offensively, but he'll be a big factor blocking shots.
UConn alum/Bobcats center Emeka Okafor knows Thabeet well and endorses him greatly for his size, strength and determination to improve. Okafor said it's striking how far the guy has come since showing up as a freshman.
I've never known Okafor to throw around false compliments, so I suspect a team with some patience will find Thabeet to be a prize.
NOTE: Guard strong>D.J. Augustin will represent the team at tonight's lottery in Secaucus, N.J. Also, Augustin has been invited to participate in the USA Basketball mini-camp July 22-25 in Las Vegas.
