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If I were running the Charlotte Bobcats, I'd take precisely the same approach to Alexis Ajinca's contract that current management has:
I'd do nothing.
By that, I mean I wouldn't decide whether to exercise Ajinca's $1.47 million contract option one minute before the Oct. 31 deadline to do so. Seemingly, that's how the Bobcats are handling this.
On Tuesday, the Bobcats announced they had exercised a $2.45million option on point guard D.J. Augustin. That was a no-brainer. Augustin has been just what the Bobcats hoped he'd be, and they need insurance should Raymond Felton leave via unrestricted free-agency next summer.
Ajinca isn't all that. The Bobcats knew they were taking on a project when they drafted the French 7-footer. The reasoning - and I found it valid - was looking to exploit the unusual depth of big men in the 2008 draft.
By trading for Denver's 20th overall pick, the Bobcats were a safe bet to get one of these three: N.C. State's J.J. Hickson, Georgetown's Roy Hibbert or Ajinca. I'm not sure of what order the Bobcats would have ranked those three, but I'd assume Hickson was atop that list.
They got Ajinca, and coach Larry Brown's enthusiasm probably bubbled over on draft night when he said Ajinca would have been a top-5 pick had he turned pro a year later. Whether or not that's true, it created unrealistic expectations.
Ajinca didn't play much last season, which shouldn't surprise anyone. But now they need him to contribute at power forward. They've fast-tracked his development, and no player has received more attention (some of it quite loud) than Ajinca.
I still don't know what will happen, but I do know this: The window to nurture first-round projects has shrunk, right along with the economy. Nearly 15 years ago the NBA worked out a rookie pay scale with the players union. The idea was that every first-round pick's salary would be slotted relative to where he was selected. The league got cost-certainty and an end to rookie holdouts. The union got near-certainty that every first-rounder would be guaranteed at least three seasons in the NBA.
Later it was trimmed back to two guaranteed seasons, plus two separate one-season options. It once was nearly a given that players would get those four seasons to develop. Not anymore.
Flipping through the 2006 NBA draft guide, at least seven of 30 first-round picks didn't get a third- or fourth-year option from the team holding their rights. That included the fifth pick (Shelden Williams) and the ninth pick (Patrick O'Bryant). So if Ajinca didn't get a guarantee for next season, it wouldn't be unprecedented.
I'm not predicting that will happen. I'm not even saying it's likely. But it's possible, with the Bobcats perilously close to the luxury-tax threshold. Commissioner David Stern said last week that the salary cap (and by extension, the tax number) would drop again next summer, anywhere from 2.5 to 5 percent. No one would have predicted that three years ago.
If I were Ajinca, I'd do everything possible the next three weeks to remind the Bobcats what he might be, because this is a risky time to take anything for granted.
