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Democrats' surprisingly strong performance in Tuesday's Charlotte election raises at least two big questions:
Where does this leave the Republican Party in Mecklenburg County? And how will Democrats govern now that Republicans aren't even a small speed bump in their path?
After Tuesday's results, Charlotte-Mecklenburg Democrats now control: the mayor's office, 8 of 11 City Council seats, six of the nine county commissioner seats, the district attorney's office, the sheriff's department and nine of 15 legislative seats. A year ago, Mecklenburg voters backed Democrat Bev Perdue over their own Pat McCrory for governor, elected Democrats to two of three U.S. House seats, helped elect Democrat Kay Hagan to the U.S. Senate and overwhelmingly voted for Barack Obama.
Yikes. Republicans and some independent voters have to be shaking their heads at all that, especially in a county that has long been considered fairly balanced.
The truth is, Mecklenburg County does not tilt Democratic as much as those results make it appear. Charlotte is still a two-party city, and some of that Democratic dominance stems from gerrymandered district lines. Anthony Foxx, after all, beat Republican John Lassiter only 51-49. Still, Republicans need to regroup and assess what has gone wrong. Otherwise, Charlotte might follow other cities that evolved into consistently one-party, Democratic governments.
For two straight years now, local Democrats have been better organized, better at targeting independents and far smarter about getting their base voters to the polls. Lassiter had name recognition, over a half-million dollars, a long resume and a high approval rating. Yet Republicans and independents didn't come out for him in big enough numbers.
Democrats, and blacks in particular, better motivated voters to get to the polls. Majority black precincts saw nearly 5,000 more voters on Tuesday than they did in 2007. Majority white precincts, meanwhile, saw 1,200 fewer.
But it wasn't just race. In the past, McCrory won most of the independent vote. Lassiter couldn't replicate that. Beverly Earle lost to McCrory by more than 20,000 votes in 2007; Foxx beat Lassiter by more than 3,000. Foxx made up those 23,000 votes all across the city, not just among black voters (see box, above).
It's hard to see who will next lead local Republicans. Will Lassiter make a comeback? Will council member Edwin Peacock, the only Republican elected citywide, emerge as a major player? Will some fed up business person fly out of a phone booth?
How to handle such power
Meanwhile, City Council Democrats have to assess how to handle their tighter grip on power. Most of what the council works on is not partisan. But a small chunk of it is, and an 8-3 majority could expand that chunk. Democrats will surely want to take advantage of their control, but they risk an electoral backlash if they go too far.
So Foxx and the Democrats will have to decide how partisan they want to be. Foxx told me he intends to "leave the party labels at home." "My hope is that people will be pleasantly surprised how inclusive my leadership will be," he said.
The Democrats will have no one to blame but themselves if things go wrong. And there might be some infighting because these eight Democrats are not likely to always see things the same way. A couple are more moderate and a couple may operate mostly out of concern for what's best for their district. Several have considerable political ambition, which could also shape how they approach the job and each other.
But if the Democrats can restrain themselves from getting too arrogant, this might be the beginning of a long hegemony. Particularly if Republicans don't get it together, and fast.
