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RALEIGH North Carolina's revenue was $95 million short at the end of October, but state officials aren't stressed - yet.
The state budget was built on a forecast of $5.88 billion in revenues by Oct. 31, but a little under $5.79 billion came in.
The revenue flow was 1.5 percent below projections, but budget experts at the legislature and in the governor's office emphasize that the first months of the fiscal year have the smallest effect on whether the books balance by the end of next June.
"The governor has measures already in place that will ensure we balance if there's a revenue shortfall for the entire fiscal year," said Charlie Perusse, Gov. Bev Perdue's budget director.
Perdue ordered agencies to withhold 5 percent of their budgets in August, just a few weeks into the new budget year.
What unnerves some of the state's economists is that the sales tax is coming in 2 percent below projections heading into a potentially disappointing Christmas shopping season. Lawmakers raised the sales tax by a penny to balance the budget, but that increase makes the state even more reliant on that source of money.
"If the weakness (in the sales tax) continues on the trend it's on now, that compounds the problem, because we've put some extra burden on that tax," said Barry Boardman, the legislature's chief economist. "That's one we're going to be watching real closely."
Income tax revenue has continued to slide as unemployment has risen.
Boardman and others are forecasting a very mild recovery beginning early next year, but he said a strong indicator of the state's financial health will be the revenue numbers at the end of December, after the Christmas season.
The state collects much more of its money in the second half of the budget year, between New Year's and June 30.
"As far as having a real sense of where this will end up," Boardman said, "we have a long way to go."
