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The economy is in the toilet. So do yourself a favor and ease up on the accelerator.
That's the indirect message of a recent study by two economists, who found that when government revenues dry up, police write more speeding tickets. After analyzing 14 years of data in North Carolina, the pair found that for every 1 percent drop in government revenue, the number of traffic tickets issued per capita increases by 30 percent the following year.
“It's significant,” said University of Arkansas-Little Rock economics professor Gary Wagner, who co-authored Red Ink in the Rearview Mirror: Local Fiscal Conditions and the Issuance of Traffic Tickets. “If there was no revenue for issuing tickets, I wouldn't expect the unemployment rate and revenue to be related.”
The study, which analyzed data from 1989 to 2003, found the lowest number of tickets issued in North Carolina was in 2000, after nearly a decade of economic growth. There were roughly 645,000 tickets written that year. The highest number of tickets came two years later, when governments were trying to recover from the post 9-11 recession, and issued roughly 768,000.
Wagner said the study reinforced a theory held universally by economists: Incentives matter.
“If local governments are somehow involved in the revenue that gets generated, there's an incentive to get more revenue,” Wagner said.
For some, the idea of government relying on lead-footed drivers to balance the budget isn't a revelation. We warn one another about small-town speed traps, and it's widely assumed that tickets are being written with more than just public safety in mind.
Wagner said there are numerous anecdotes nationwide of such practices, such as the mayor of Nashville, Tenn., proposing two years ago a 33 percent increase in ticket revenue in his budget.
Wagner's co-author, Thomas Garrett, is an assistant vice president at the St. Louis Federal Reserve. North Carolina was chosen as a case study simply because the state had good data.
During the study period, N.C. issued 11 tickets for every 100 residents. Dare County had the highest rate, at 29 per 100. Caldwell County was the lowest, at 6 per 100.
The study didn't have detailed information on Mecklenburg.
The N.C. Association of Chiefs of Police couldn't be reached for comment. Some area police officers were skeptical.
Robert Fey, a spokesman for the Charlotte-Mecklenburg Police Department, said the study isn't true.
“Absolutely not,” Fey said. “I've been stopped by friends and family who thinks there is such a thing as a quota, and that's illegal. We write citations to enforce traffic laws. It's a good conspiracy theory. It doesn't exist in Charlotte-Mecklenburg.”
Wagner said his research doesn't imply police departments have quotas. He speculates that the increase in tickets might simply be the result of more people tasked with enforcement, or more people are given tickets instead of warnings.
One Matthews police officer said he doesn't believe government relies on tickets in hard times.
“I've never heard of anyone say ‘We need to write more tickets,'” said officer Stason Tyrell. “We don't get the revenue.”
Said Sgt. Tim Hartsell of the Concord Police Department: “I've been doing this for 18 years. That's never been a consideration of mine. We don't get anything from the tickets we write.”
Ticket fines in North Carolina go to the county school district in which the ticket was issued. Though the money doesn't go directly to a police department, Wagner said revenue that once funded schools can be replaced with speeding ticket revenue. That transfer could then free up tax revenue for other departments, including police.
N.C. school districts have often complained that ticket revenue should be in addition to their regular allotment – and not replacing dollars from another source.
Wagner said he's tried to think of another explanation for the jump in tickets following downturns. Do unemployed people drive faster?
“I don't think so,” Wagner said. “I don't think that's plausible.”
Fayetteville fights back
Fayetteville is mounting a public relations counterattack after its outerbelt has been attacked, most notably by Charlotte politicians who say the city should wait its turn for highway money.
The city held a news conference last week touting their loop, and launched a Web site – www.i295fay.com. The N.C. Department of Transportation is poised to spend $270 million to extend Interstate 295 around Fayetteville and connect the loop with Fort Bragg.
Charlotte has cried foul because Interstate 485 isn't finished. Mayor Pat McCrory has long complained about the I-295 project, and late last year Matthews Mayor Lee Myers wrote President-elect Obama, asking that his administration freeze federal money to North Carolina until the Fayetteville loop is investigated.
State Sen. Tony Rand, a Fayetteville Democrat who champions the road, responded by calling Charlotte “whiners.”
Fayetteville argues that its outerbelt is essential because of a massive expansion of Fort Bragg, which will add 40,000 people to the region. The loop will connect the base to I-95, and military leaders have said the highway is important for national security.
Charlotte's case relies on numbers.
The last section of I-485 in northeast Mecklenburg is expected to carry 130,000 cars a day by 2030, while the Fayetteville loop is expected to peak at 42,000 cars near the base.
Fayetteville is scrambling because the recession has forced the N.C. DOT to postpone I-295's construction.
Another factor: One supporter of the Fayetteville loop is Transportation Secretary Lyndo Tippett, a Fayetteville native who is Rand's close friend. Tippett's last Board of Transportation meeting was last week.
