Share
Earlier this month, when Gaston County reported its first confirmed case of swine flu, Health Director Colleen Bridger had an interesting comment.
“The most important thing for the general public to realize,” she said, “is that this essentially changes nothing.”
She's right.
It's been four months since the first cases of this new swine flu virus caused human illness in Mexico and the United States.
Today, about 41,000 cases of the novel H1N1 virus have been reported in this country. North Carolina has about 400 confirmed cases; South Carolina, about 250. This past weekend, two more cases were confirmed in children at the Harris YMCA in south Charlotte.
Swine flu virus is all around us. It's a fact of life now, just like seasonal flu and cold viruses.
That's why Bridger said one more case here changes nothing.
What matters is that we know it's here and that we act accordingly, by washing our hands, covering our coughs and staying home from work or school if we have flu-like symptoms.
Just because the first case of swine flu in Gaston County has been documented by the lab, that doesn't mean Gaston County has only one case of swine flu. Others may have experienced flu-like symptoms so mild they didn't bother seeing a doctor or asking for a test to determine what virus caused their illness.
Swine flu is so prevalent now – it was declared a pandemic in June – that public health officials no longer recommend testing to determine the cause of illness unless someone is sick enough to be hospitalized.
The reason to keep an eye on serious cases is to monitor the virus for mutation. “It had to mutate once to become this novel strain (that affects humans),” Bridger said. “If it changes again, it might get really, really bad.”
For now, the H1N1 virus in humans is pretty mild. It has caused more than 260 deaths nationwide (6 in N.C. and none in S.C.), but health officials say it's no more severe than seasonal flu, which causes about 36,000 deaths in the United States each year. Most people who have died from swine flu have also had other medical conditions.
The worry is that swine flu, as happened with the terrible Spanish flu epidemic of 1918, could return in the fall in a more virulent form.
“Eyes are really on the southern hemisphere right now,” said Dr. Stephen Keener, medical director for the Mecklenburg County Health Department. “This is the time of year when they have their seasonal influenza.”
In that part of the world, swine flu has become this year's seasonal flu. But so far, “it's behaving like it behaved in May,” Keener said. “Not that severe.”
Pharmaceutical companies are preparing a swine flu vaccine that is supposed to be ready in time for the winter flu season in the northern hemisphere. “The plan is for everybody to get vaccinated,” Keener said.
But vaccinating everyone would be tough. No flu vaccine program has ever done that.
Complicating matters even further, a vaccination against swine flu will require two shots, given a month apart. That's because it's a new vaccine and no one will have immunity from previous vaccinations.
Any swine flu shots would be in addition to seasonal flu shots, which health officials will still recommend, at least for those at high risk of getting influenza complications.
Unlike regular winter flu that is most dangerous to people over 65 and under 2, the new swine flu that has quickly spread around the globe seems to disproportionately target school-age children, teenagers and young adults.
It might be possible to get the seasonal flu vaccine and the first H1N1 vaccination on the same day, Keener said. But scientists are not yet sure if that would be safe, and studies are planned. Some vaccine-wary groups are leery about giving “experimental” swine flu vaccine to children.
“We hope it's going to be the same (mild flu) as it has been in the spring,” Keener said. “But you know what happened in 1918. This is the possibility that everybody's concerned about. All the planning scenarios are based on a severe outbreak. If it turns out to be not severe, then we'll be in good shape.”
Until then, keep washing your hands.
