AAA: Thanksgiving travel may rise, but only by a smidge

AAA forecast: Thanksgiving trips up just 0.7% as economic struggles persist

11/13/2012 6:59 PM

11/14/2012 7:53 AM

Slightly more Americans will hit the road this Thanksgiving, according to AAA. That includes people who are choosing to drive instead of fly as household budgets remain tight.

In its annual Thanksgiving travel forecast released Tuesday, AAA predicts 43.6 million Americans will travel at least 50 miles from home over the holiday, up just 0.7 percent from last year.

But while slightly more people are traveling, it appears that the pent-up demand seen following the recession has largely dissipated. Demand grew a healthy 8 percent and 6 percent, respectively, in the two previous Thanksgiving holiday periods – even though economic growth was moderate. Now, AAA says, it will take a stronger economy to spur a significant jump in travel demand going forward.

“Despite mild improvements in unemployment, the housing market and greater consumer optimism, the economy is still struggling to keep its head above water,” AAA said in its forecast.

The number of travelers forecast to drive, fly or hop on a train or bus this holiday is still 26 percent below the peak in 2005, and 14 percent below 2007.

Air travel is expected to decline, one sign that many households continue to feel financially pinched. AAA expects 3.14 million people to travel by air, down from 3.2 million a year earlier. Even with gas at a current national average of $3.44 per gallon, driving the family from New England to the Midwest to see the relatives is still cheaper than flying.

And filling up the tank will cost less than people expected when the survey was conducted in early October. That’s because of a dramatic drop in gas prices. The national average has declined 35 cents per gallon in the last month. AAA expects further declines through the holiday.

Still, the price of gas on Thanksgiving Day should be around last year’s record of $3.32 per gallon.

Airlines for America, the main trade group for U.S. airlines, expects a mild increase in flying over Thanksgiving. The group’s prediction covers the 12 days starting Nov. 16. AAA defines the Thanksgiving holiday travel period as Wednesday, Nov. 21 to Sunday, Nov. 25.

AAA’s forecast, which is produced from a combination of a traveler surveys and economic analysis, was done before Superstorm Sandy hit the East Coast. AAA said it doesn’t yet know the full impact the storm will have on travel in the Mid-Atlantic region, but it expects it will be significant.

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