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It's been a rough year for Brad Goforth and the Charlotte nonprofit he runs, Samaritan House.
As the recession ravaged the region, donations to the organization, a haven for homeless people recently released from the hospital, fell 40 percent. At home in Matthews, Goforth and his wife are paying college tuition for two children while battling new expenses, such as climbing bank fees the little stuff that is intruding on us, he said.
Goforth is among the 43percent of N.C. and S.C. residents who feel they're worse off financially this year than last, a recent poll revealed. But he's also among the nearly 40percent who expect to be better off financially next year.
His responses embody the mix of pessimism and hope among respondents to the annual Carolinas Poll, which surveyed more than 750 people last month. The poll found:
Just 7 percent of Carolinas residents surveyed think their families are better off this year than last. That's down from 11percent last year, and it's the lowest level since 1981. Almost half said their finances are about the same as last year.
At the same time, 39 percent of adults surveyed said they expected to be better off financially next year than now, up from 31 percent last year. In Mecklenburg, that number was closer to half. Just 7 percent of local respondents thought things would be worse next year.
But looking further ahead, more than half of the respondents expect the next five years to carry widespread unemployment and lingering effects of the worst recession in decades.
The poll, conducted in mid-September for The Charlotte Observer, WCNC and WFAE, has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.6 percentage points.
The mixed messages reflect the fear and uncertainty still looming over the Carolinas, even as recent signals point to the beginning of a recovery. Experts say people need more good news before their optimism will return and that until then, consumer spending could remain tight.
If we are at the bottom of the recession public perception still lags behind, said Randall Kincaid, an economics professor at Queens University of Charlotte. The pessimism of this report simply reflects that.
The recession slammed the Carolinas harder than other parts of the country, topping a long manufacturing-sector decline with a global financial crisis that rocked the Charlotte region.
Consumer spending, which drives two-thirds of economic activity, has dwindled, and unemployment, though falling slightly in recent months, remains in double digits. That's been especially jarring for the Charlotte region, an area characterized for years as booming and prosperous. Fewer Mecklenburg residents felt they were better off this year than the state as a whole, the poll found.
Beginning this summer, hopeful signs began to emerge. Layoffs slowed, and the housing market stabilized. Some economists declared that the recession ended.
That was reflected in some ways in the Carolinas Poll, which showed a small uptick in economic confidence. The poll is used to calculate an Economic Confidence Index for the Carolinas, similar to the national Consumer Confidence Index, which gauges consumers' optimism. That number rose to 107 from 96, which last year was the second-worst in the poll's history. This year's figure is still far lower than the 156 high in 1999, though it does indicate a bit of a rebound.
Nationally, consumer spending surged in August by 1.3percent, the largest month-to-month jump since October 2001.
For Goforth, the Samaritan House director, new expenses like rising credit card fees have cut into his family's disposable income, he said. He said he was worse off this year because of his organization, as well, which has been squeezed as people cut back charitable giving.
Goforth's wife also works for a nonprofit, and they are working longer hours and trying to maintain their own giving, he said.
The 56-year-old Shelby native, who returned to the Charlotte area a decade ago after retiring from the Navy, said he started to feel better in June, as layoffs slowed, banks began to repay government debts and volunteers took a greater interest in his nonprofit.
I feel a little more confident that things are going to turn around right, he said.
Still, economists say public perception follows the unemployment rate, which is expected to remain inflated at least through the end of the year and gloom persists. The national unemployment rate was 9.8 percent last month, according to new figures released Friday. The Charlotte region's jobless rate was 11.8 percent in August, almost twice as high as it was a year ago.
More than half the poll respondents said now is a bad time to buy expensive household items, such as furniture and refrigerators.
It's certainly not surprising, said Rick Kaglic, a regional economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond's Charlotte branch. Recessions tend to weigh heavily on our collective psyche.
People's income and wealth are down, battered by job losses and stock losses, he said. Kaglic said we've likely hit a bottom, but that it will take awhile for people's attitudes to bounce back.
That's left some Carolinians fearing the worst in years to come.
Danny Walker of Gastonia said his financial situation was the same this year, but that he expected widespread unemployment in the future.
He closed his home-improvement company in 2005, saying the market never recovered after the 9-11 attacks. He returned to school and took a job as an imaging engineer, repairing X-ray machines.
Walker, 47, doesn't expect a big raise this year, thanks to the recession. His wife is a nurse, and while the medical field has remained strong, elective surgeries have slowed, and she has lost two days of work a week, he said.
The Gastonia area will continue to face hard times, mainly because of the manufacturing sector's decline and the flood of workers who have been laid off, Walker said.
My question is, where are these workers going to work? he said.
Leena Bhargav, 46, said her financial situation was worse this year. Her work week at Charlotte/Douglas International Airport, where she's a cashier, was just cut to 36 hours, and she can't afford health insurance, she said.
It's really, really bad right now, Bhargav said.
While Bhargav is hopeful things will improve, she answered in the poll that she expects more bad times over the next five years.
The most hopeful respondents were the youngest, continuing a trend from last year, the Carolinas Poll found. Almost half of those ages 18 to 34 said they expected to be better off financially next year, compared with 39 percent of all surveyed. Just 5 percent of those under 24 predicted they would be worse off.
Mint Hill resident Leslie Nash, who said her financial situation was about the same as last year, had two job offers at the time of the poll and recently accepted one with a pharmaceutical company.
There are jobs out there, and there are opportunities out there, said Nash, 30, who predicts a brighter future for the Carolinas. I see growth, and not just in Charlotte.
Her friends are still buying big-ticket items, such as houses, and she plans to buy a home in the next year, she said.
As for the differing opinions between age groups, Nash understands. She lives with her aging father, who has been through several downturns and knows good times can be fleeting.
He thinks that anytime, the bottom could essentially fall out again, she said. I tend to have a more positive attitude.
