Is North Carolina reverting back to form?
After a month of leading most N.C. polls, Barack Obama finds himself in a dead heat today with John McCain.
Raleigh's Public Policy Polling has Obama leading McCain, 49-48, in a survey released Monday. Obama led by seven in PPP's poll one week ago.
Rasmussen, in a poll released Monday evening, has McCain on top by the same 49-48 margin. McCain led by two in a Rasmussen poll Friday.
N.C. hasn't awarded its 15 electoral votes to a Democrat since 1976.
PPP's Tom Jensen says McCain gained significantly among Democrats and whites in the past week.
If that trend continues, Jensen says, McCain will win N.C.
But, says Jensen: “Obama has the upper hand for a 1- to 2-point victory based on so many of his supporters already having turned out to cast a ballot for him.”
His prediction – for now: Obama by 50,000 votes or less.
The game plan
The topic of the day Monday – and likely today: taxes. McCain is finding some polling traction in painting Obama as a tax-raising liberal and will hammer that message hard in Pennsylvania and in Fayetteville.
Obama opted for the big picture speech Monday in Ohio, talking about economic hope and the future.
Look for him to go at the tax message more directly in Pennsylvania and Virginia today.
Poll of the day
Public Policy Polling
U.S. Senate: Kay Hagan (D) 48, Elizabeth Dole (R) 45, Christopher Cole (L) 4.
1,038 likely voters; margin of error +/- 2.8 percentage points
What it means
Hagan wins her seventh consecutive weekly PPP poll, but her lead drops from seven points to three.
New N.C. governor poll numbers will be released today.
Online readers say …
“Dewey Defeats Truman” For those of you who are unfamiliar with history, No he didn't. More recently: “Exit Polls Show Win For Kerry” – Wrong again, wait till next week and remember, “Never count your chickens before they hatch.”
In the end it does not matter if N.C. is red or blue – the die is cast and the election will go to Obama barring a catastrophic event.