If you go back to your draft day list, it’s always remarkable to see how much things change.
For example, who would have thought that Carson Wentz and Alex Smith would be the No. 1 and 2 quarterbacks on the season, outpacing greats such as Tom Brady and Drew Brees?
Likewise, who would have seen this coming? Jared Goff (LA Rams) is your top-rated quarterback for Week 10.
This week, Goff, off a game with a career-best 311 passing yards and a career-best four passing touchdowns, gets a Texans’ defense allowing the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
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Here are more top plays for Week 10 and some players you may want to avoid..
▪ Matthew Stafford (Detroit) has topped 300 yards in three straight games, the first time he’s done that since 2011. Stafford joined a very short list of quarterbacks last week with 200-plus touchdowns before age 30 and he is playing like the game’s highest-paid player.
▪ Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh) historically struggles on the road but this should be an exception. He’s coming off a bye week, giving him extra time to prepare for an Indianapolis defense that allows 280 passing yards per game, second-most.
▪ LeSean McCoy (Buffalo) has been particularly effective at home where he averages 131 yards per scrimmage per game versus 66 per game when on the road.
▪ Expect another heavy workload for Jordan Howard (Chicago) this week – Chicago has run the ball 60.5 percent of their offensive plays since Mitchell Trubisky took over as the Bears’ quarterback, the highest rate in the league.
▪ Back at home, Devonta Freeman (Atlanta) is a candidate to break out of a funk. After scoring five touchdowns in the first four weeks, Freeman has gone four straight games without a score.
▪ Orleans Darkwa (NY Giants) may not have the highest upside, but he’s averaged more than over 82 yards per game over his past four and San Francisco allows the most rushing yards in the league.
▪ Robby Anderson (NY Jets) has turned into nearly an every-week starter. He’s been the 14th best fantasy receiver over the past four games and has scored in three straight. Tampa allows the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.
▪ Marquise Lee (Jacksonville) has come on strong of late, averaging 77 yards per game over his past three on 9.3 targets per game on average.
▪ Ed Dickson (Carolina) could be a deep-sleeper for Week 10 in likely his final start before Greg Olsen presumably makes his return. Miami allows the second-most receptions per game to opposing tight ends.
▪ It depends on your options but on the road, outdoors, is not the best game script for Drew Brees (New Orleans). Also, Buffalo allows less than one passing touchdown per game, and the Drew Brees high-end upside of years past may not be there as the Saints run the ball more by design (he has 300-plus yards passing in just two of eight games this year).
▪ At Jacksonville makes Phillip Rivers (LA Rams) a clear-cut avoid this week – the Jaguars are allowing a league-low 156 yards passing per game.
▪ At home against the Browns may sound like a good opportunity to start Ameer Abdullah (Detroit). However, Cleveland allows the third-fewest rushing yards and Abdullah is likely on thin ice after losing two fumbles last week.
▪ It’s hard to imagine a big game here for Jordy Nelson (Green Bay), who has caught only five passes for 48 yards in the two games Brett Hundley has started.
▪ T.Y. Hilton (Indianapolis) is not a must-start each week. Though he is coming off a massive 175-yard, two-touchdown game, this week he gets a tough draw against a Steelers’ defense that has allowed only six passing touchdowns this season.
▪ Kelvin Benjamin (Buffalo) should play this week but he still only has had a little more than a week to learn the offense. Plus, the Saints have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers over the past three weeks and Benjamin will likely go against star defensive back Marshon Lattimore.
Alan Satterlee is in his fourth year of writing about fantasy football for The Charlotte Observer. Find him on Twitter at @Speedkills_DFW.