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Two teams I've been slow to acknowledge are Atlanta and Baltimore. Maybe I have a bias against rookie quarterbacks. The 6-3 Ravens have a winning record on the road and the 6-3 Falcons are undefeated at home, where they play Denver today.
A team to which I had been true, at a great cost to my winning percentage, is Indianapolis. I finally went against the Colts last week. They betrayed me by beating Pittsburgh on the road. Or maybe I betrayed them. So not only was I wrong, I was guilty.
The moral: Stand by your team.
Season: 87-56.
Lock of the Week: 1-9.
Lock of the Year: 0-1.
I'm not a mathematician, but the odds of picking one out of 10 Locks are probably, like, 10percent.
I called in sick last week for the first time in years. Thought it was the flu. Turned out to be Lockjaw. Get it? Lock humor will never be big in this country.
This week's picks, with the home team in CAPS.
ATLANTA by 2 over Denver
I'm smart now.
MIAMI by 16 over Oakland
The media almost never has access to the field before a game. But everything in Oakland was lax. The guard waved me through. I did see one Oakland assistant giving me a long look. He appeared to be looking for somebody to hand a helmet.
GREEN BAY by 3 over Chicago
At the end of the day, the top three teams in the NFC North will be 5-5.
N.Y. GIANTS by 8 over Baltimore
I can acknowledge a team without picking it.
INDIANAPOLIS by 11
over Houston
If the Colts lose again, it will be in the playoffs.
CAROLINA by 27 over Detroit
But the game is closer than the score.
New Orleans by 2
over KANSAS CITY
I'm a fan of New Orleans, the city. Going there is like leaving the country without leaving the country, presuming you consider Louisiana part of the United States. Maybe that's why I continue to pick the Saints.
Philadelphia by 4
over CINCINNATI
The Bengals did not lose last week or the week before, which I believe is their longest non-losing streak in 12 seasons. Yet …
TAMPA BAY by 8 over Minnesota
The Bucs don't lose at home. The only NFC South team to lose at home is New Orleans. The South's home record is 17-1.
Arizona by 2 over SEATTLE
As poorly as the Cardinals played against San Francisco on Monday night, they won. Good teams win when they play poorly. Arizona is a good team.
SAN FRANCISCO by 2
over St. Louis
At stake is second place in the NFC West.
PITTSBURGH by 4
over San Diego
Thus ends the Charger myth.
Tennessee by 2
over JACKSONVILLE
Three road games after this on the Titans' schedule: Detroit, Houston and, in the finale, Indianapolis.
WASHINGTON by 1 over Dallas
The Cowboys are rested and healthy. But they're still the Cowboys.
BUFFALO by 6 over Cleveland
The 12th-best game of the weekend. At least MNF is consistent.
Lock of the Week: Miami (-101/2) over Oakland.
