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The oddsmakers are getting tough. To entice fans to bet against the elite teams they've been raising the lines point by point almost every week.
Undefeated Indianapolis is a 121/2-point favorite against solid San Francisco. Early in the week you could get the Colts at 11. By kickoff, however, the line could go to 13. But who has the guts to pick against the Colts? There's no logic, at least not yet, in going against the best teams.
San Diego is a 161/2-point favorite against Oakland. The Chargers and Raiders opened the season against each other and the Raiders almost won. But to bet on the Raiders you have to be one of those silver and black fans who wear a Halloween costume all year long.
I respect those fans, incidentally. In retrospect, I would have worn an Oakland/Mad Max outfit around the house when my kids were young. They would have listened to me then.
Chicago is a 13-point favorite against Cleveland. What makes the line interesting is that the Bears lost last week to Cincinnati by 35. Cleveland, meanwhile, almost beat the Bengals four weeks ago. So are you going with the Browns? I'd go with the Indians first.
The disparity between the very good and the very bad must trouble the league that developed the concept of parity. And if there is not a salary cap next season - and there almost certainly won't be - the disparity will become greater.
Some teams, fearing a lockout after the 2010 season, will hoard what they have. Others - Washington and Dallas - will attempt to outspend everybody. And they'll usually succeed.
Last Week: 10-3
Season: 73-30.
Upset of the Week (picking an underdog to win): 4-2. I missed Atlanta over Dallas last week.
Lock of the Week (picking against the line): 5-2. I've picked four straight.
This week's picks with the home team in CAPS:
Upset of the week
Jacksonville, a 3-point underdog, 3 over TENNESSEE: The Vince Young Era begins in Nashville. To get a seat, leave now.
Games of the week
ARIZONA 7 over Carolina: The Panthers will play their best game of the season, but the superior Cardinals will score late to win. A Panther from whom fans expect little will be outstanding. Candidates include Dwayne Jarrett, Chris Gamble and, ah, Jake Delhomme.
Minnesota 1 over GREEN BAY: The danger when a player returns to his old turf is that he tries to do too much. But Minnesota's Brett Favre always tries to do too much. Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers will outplay him. Favre, however, works with the NFL's best running back and pass rush. Rodgers does not.
BALTIMORE 6 over Denver: I've picked against Denver eight straight times. I like the Broncos, I finally do. I like the Ravens more.
The rest
DETROIT 6 over St. Louis
NEW YORK JETS 4 over Miami
DALLAS 5 over Seattle
CHICAGO 12 over Cleveland
Houston 4 over BUFFALO
PHILADELPHIA 5 over N.Y. Giants
SAN DIEGO 15 over Oakland
NEW ORLEANS 13 over Atlanta
Lock of the week
INDIANAPOLIS, a 121/2-point favorite, 14 over San Francisco
