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I'm in a group. There are 56 of us, and we pick three games every week against the line.
I went 0-3 the first week and was in last place. Going into last week, I was in first.
To stay there, I needed New Orleans to beat Atlanta by more than 10.
I got off a plane from Phoenix on Monday night, met with some engaging faculty members and Mass Communications students from Winthrop and then headed home.
There the Saints were, with the ball, clock running low and a lead of 11. All they had to do was pick up a first down. All they really had to do was avoid fumbling.
They fumbled.
Atlanta recovered and kicked a field goal. The thinking of the Falcons was that they would then call the extra special play that would enable them to simultaneously recover an onside kick, score a touchdown and add a two-point conversion.
On two.
The play failed and New Orleans won by eight. I'm no longer in first place.
That fumble and field goal have stayed in my head all week like the ABBA song I heard as I walked out of the coffee shop, never to return.
Luckily, it's Sunday again - time for a new tune.
Last Week: 9-4
Season: 82-34
Lock of the Week: (against the spread) 5-3
Upset of the Week: (underdog to win) 4-3.
This week's picks with the home team in CAPS:
Upset of the week
You know, I hate how I've picked a Lock every week but didn't pick an Upset until Week 2. So in the interest of symmetry I'll pick two Upsets this week. I have three road underdogs from which to choose.
My Upsets of the Week are Arizona (a three-point underdog) and San Diego (a 51/2-point underdog). Speaking of the Chargers and Giants, who would you rather have: Philip Rivers or Eli Manning? You remember the 2004 draft-day trade the Giants made with San Diego so they could take Manning with the first pick?
Here's how good Rivers is. He won at N.C. State.
Games of the week
NEW ORLEANS 11 over Carolina: The Saints have won this season by 18, 26, 20, 14, 21, 12 and eight. The competition is creeping closer. The Panthers have to run often and effectively, and they have to get to quarterback Drew Brees. If they're successful, they'll hang in. Jake Delhomme has never lost in the Superdome. The disparity in talent, however, is too great. Carolina won't win this game.
CINCINNATI 2 over Baltimore: I hate picking against the Ravens, especially after their wanton destruction of Denver last week. But I'll go with the hot team at home, especially since the Bengals are coming off a bye.
PHILADELPHIA 3 over Dallas: It's tough to get open when you carry a sign that says, FOR THE LOVE OF ALL THAT'S HOLY GIVE ME THE BALL. For proof, watch Dallas' Roy Williams.
The rest
Pittsburgh 3 over DENVER
NEW ENGLAND 9 over Miami
INDIANAPOLIS 7 over Houston
Green Bay 8 over TAMPA BAY
JACKSONVILLE 2 over Kansas City
SEATTLE 11 over Detroit
SAN FRANCISCO 7 over Tennessee
Lock of the week
ATLANTA, a 10-point favorite, 14 over Washington
