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Pa. looks crucial for John McCain

Former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge, once a Republican VP possibility, said Friday his state is a must-win for John McCain.

Told-you-so or not, Ridge is right.

With GOP insiders admitting that Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa are slipping away, McCain now has to win Pennsylvania.

Officials from both parties say the race is closer than Obama's double-digit lead in polls, and the state's rural areas are fertile for McCain's attacks on Obama's tax plan.

Obama campaign honcho David Plouffe, however, told reporters Friday his campaign's 1.2 million advantage in voter registration, plus Obama's polling success among independents, leaves McCain a “daunting task.”

If he's right, election night might not be a long one.

Poll of the day

State

North Carolina

Pollster

Rasmussen

Numbers

President: John McCain 50, Barack Obama 48.

Details

700 likely voters; margin of error +/- 4 percent.

What it means

This is McCain's first N.C. lead in two weeks. A five-point swing since Rasmussen's poll Monday shows just how volatile the race is.

A warning: Rasmussen has Obama winning 87 percent of Democrats and 98 percent of blacks – a far higher percentage of each than in N.C. polls more favorable overall to Obama. That likely means this poll has fewer of each demographic among the respondents.

The issue of how to measure black turnout and sampling has vexed pollsters all election. There will be no right answer until Nov. 4.

Online readers on “Is it over?”…

Well, with huge early voting numbers in a lot of states, it's a whole lot more “over” at this point than would have been the case in past years. A new narrative can't change the minds of people who already voted.

Anonymous

It ain't over till the fat lady sings. Remember Truman/Dewey. Polls are next to useless. They're good for talking points and that's about it. The samples are just too small.

jjw901

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