Education
CMS overestimated growth at several high schools, tally shows
Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools overestimated growth at several high schools in west and south Charlotte when it planned for the current academic year, numbers released Thursday show.
CMS officials have said little about why enrollment growth slowed to a seldom-seen level this year. According to a count taken in September and posted online in November, CMS ended up with 146,140 students after planning and budgeting for almost 148,000.
Total enrollment increased by 777 students, the smallest growth in recent memory except for 2009, when a change in kindergarten eligibility dates reduced enrollment across North Carolina.
Enrollment projections shape teacher assignment, purchases of textbooks and technology and allotments from the state and county. After the Observer reported on the enrollment shortfall this week, Mecklenburg County commissioners Bill James, a Republican, and Pat Cotham, a Democrat, voiced concerns that the county allotment was based on projections that did not materialize.
“CMS (by inflating their ‘growth’) ended up receiving an extra $3.9 million from Mecklenburg County for students they said they would have but didn’t end up receiving,” James said in an email.
CMS officials have not spoken publicly about enrollment since Superintendent Ann Clark told the school board early in September that the district was on track to meet its projection of adding 2,400 students. However, the gap between projections and actual enrollment came up at a county commissioners’ meeting earlier this month.
County Manager Dena Diorio noted that the county provided $5.8 million to CMS to cover new schools and the anticipated growth of about 2,400 students. Since actual growth was just under one-third of that, CMS could have ended up with $3.9 million less if projections had been accurate, Diorio said.
At a Wednesday news conference on teacher recruitment, Clark referred all enrollment questions to Scott McCully, the CMS administrator in charge of student placement.
“We’re going to go back and take a look at our model,” McCully said, noting that for the last four years, CMS has swung between coming in well over or well under projections. This year, he said, CMS and state projections were virtually identical but both were too high. Statewide, he said, enrollment fell about 1 percent short of projections, as it did in CMS.
When McCully declined to name any schools or parts of the county where enrollment fell short, the Observer requested the projections for each school.
While the cause remains unclear, some patterns emerge from those numbers, provided Thursday:
▪ Twenty-six of the district’s 168 schools were at least 50 students short of projections.
▪ The biggest gaps were at Harding and West Charlotte high schools, both high-poverty schools on the city’s west side. CMS had forecast growth, but both schools saw enrollment shrink, leaving a gap of almost 175 students at each school.
▪ South Mecklenburg, Olympic, Garinger, East Mecklenburg, Vance and West Mecklenburg high schools also came up at least 50 students short of projections.
▪ Several of the preK-8 neighborhood schools created when CMS closed high-poverty, low-performing middle schools in 2011 also fell short. Byers School, for instance, projected 505 students and got 392, a 22 percent shortfall.
▪ Sixteen schools have at least 50 students more than anticipated. J.H. Gunn, an east Charlotte elementary school that expected 679 students and got 779, tops that list.
▪ Many of the other schools seeing unexpected growth, including Myers Park and Ardrey Kell high schools, are low-poverty, high-performing schools, many located in the suburbs.
Ann Doss Helms: 704-358-5033, @anndosshelms
Enrollment gaps
Here are the 10 schools that were farthest below and above 2015-16 enrollment projections.
Below projections
▪ Harding High: 1,632 students (-174)
▪ West Charlotte High: 1,673 students (-173)
▪ South Mecklenburg High: 2,924 students (-126)
▪ Olympic High: 2,472 students (-116)
▪ Byers School: 392 students (-113)
▪ Garinger High: 1,904 students (-104)
▪ King Middle: 1,023 students (-102)
▪ David Cox Road Elementary: 668 students (-99)
▪ Sterling Elementary: 638 students (-86)
▪ East Mecklenburg High: 1,864 students (-86)
Above projections
▪ Gunn Elementary: 779 students (+100)
▪ Bain Elementary: 941 students (+90)
▪ Myers Park High: 2,865 students (+85)
▪ Elizabeth Lane Elementary: 1,000 students (+84)
▪ Mountain Island Lake Academy: 872 students (+77)
▪ Cornelius Elementary: 634 students (+73)
▪ McKee Road Elementary: 538 students (+71)
▪ Idlewild Elementary: 980 students (+62)
▪ Ardrey Kell High: 2,879 students (+62)
▪ Hawk Ridge Elementary: 920 students (+59)
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