Especially when on the fence between which players to start, one way to break the tie is to look a game’s “over/under” and start players in games expected to be high-scoring. That’s especially true this week with two games that look to likely generate a ton of points (and fantasy points) in the Atlanta/Tampa Bay game (an over/under in the high 50s) and the New England/Kansas City game (an over/under near 60).
For starters, Tom Brady (New England) and Patrick Mahomes (Tampa Bay) are slotted as the No. 1 and No. 2 quarterbacks in this week’s rankings.
James White (New England) has turned into an every-week starter, ranking as the No. 7 running back on pace for 102 receptions, and he’s especially a strong play this week against a Kansas City defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Even Chris Hogan (New England), who has disappointed, could surprise with a useful fantasy game. There should be plenty to go around against a Chiefs defense allowing 343 passing yards per game (second-most).
In the other spotlighted game, this should be a get-right game for Matt Ryan (Atlanta) and the Falcons offense at home and against a Tampa Bay defense allowing a league-high 34.8 points per game.
Julio Jones (Atlanta) is certainly well overdue for a touchdown and this could be the week against a defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, plus Jones had a huge game the last time he faced the Bucs with 12 receptions, 253 yards and two touchdowns.
Keep playing the hot-hand in Austin Hooper (Atlanta) who had nine receptions last week and this week will go against a Tampa Bay defense allowing the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
Jameis Winston (Tampa Bay) returns under center and he should post strong numbers making he and the Tampa receivers strong starts in a likely shoot-out game where the 31st- and 32nd-ranked scoring defenses square off.
Other Play ’Em
Baker Mayfield (Cleveland) has averaged just under 320 yards passing in his two starts and he should be in store for another solid game at home in what should be a shoot-out game against Philip Rivers and the Chargers.
Isaiah Crowell (N.Y. Jets) gets a bump in this week’s rankings coming off a massive 219-yard rushing game and with an attractive home match-up against the Colts.
James Conner (Pittsburgh) stays in the high-end running back mix off a huge 185-yard game and going against a Bengals defense allowing 150 yards on the ground per game over its past three (second-most).
T.J. Yeldon (Jacksonville) has averaged 104 total yards per game over his past three and will again get the lead role with Leonard Fournette (hamstring) out.
Pittsburgh has allowed 336.3 yards passing over its past three (most in the NFL) and A.J. Green (Cincinnati) historically has huge games against the Steelers (Green averages 7.1 receptions and 101 yards in his past eight games against Pittsburgh).
The Broncos’ receivers should be busy likely in catch-up mode plus the Rams have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers over the past three weeks -- start Emmanuel Sanders (Denver).
Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh) historically can have challenges on the road and that’s especially true at Cincinnati where he’s averaged just 241 yards passing with 1.4 touchdowns over his career.
Coming off an epic six-touchdown game prior to the Week 5 bye week, Mitchell Trubisky (Chicago) should come back to earth against a Dolphins’ defense that allows the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Though Kenyan Drake (Miami) finally got involved in the Dolphins’ game plan last week, and responded with seven receptions and a score last week, he gets arguably the league’s toughest defense this week and the Bears are the only team not to allow a rushing touchdown this season.
John Brown (Baltimore) still has some appeal given his volume and ability to hit on any one play though this game looks to be low-scoring against two defenses ranked in the top four of points allowed per game and Tennessee is only allowing 210 yards passing per game (3rd-fewest).