These benchmarks will determine whether NC moves to Phase 2. Here’s how we’re doing.
Updated May 18 at 5:15 p.m. with developments and the latest data.
North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper cited the state’s progress in meeting certain benchmarks when he allowed some restrictions to be lifted May 8 as part of reopening the state’s economy during the coronavirus pandemic.
Phase 2, when more restrictions are eased on businesses and gatherings, could start as soon as May 22.
“North Carolina’s approach is grounded firmly in the data, the science and the facts,” Cooper said at a news conference May 5. “We believe the data shows us now is the time to begin easing these restrictions. We’re doing it cautiously and carefully.”
Cooper and Dr. Mandy Cohen, Secretary of N.C. Department of Health and Human Services, outlined the benchmarks on April 23 and began releasing all of the metrics publicly on April 27.
“We hope that we can move forward into Phase 2,” Cooper said at a news conference May 18. But he said state officials need to see a few more days’ worth of data before making the decision.
There are two categories of data: four trends and three capacity considerations.
Here are the data — first the trends and then the capacity — and how North Carolina is doing. We will be updating this information regularly.
Trajectory of COVID-like syndromic cases over 14 days
What it means: North Carolina has a surveillance network that tracks visits to emergency rooms or clinics with COVID-19 symptoms, such as fever, cough, shortness of breath or need for oxygen therapy. It’s not a perfect measure of who has the virus, but it provides one early detection measure.
Limitations: It can only measure people who are seeking care. Everyone with symptoms does not seek care, and other measures indicate that fewer people than normal are seeking care during the COVID-19 outbreak. The state releases this information weekly on its COVID-19 dashboard.
Trend: The share of visits with those symptoms peaked during the week of March 21 and have shown significant movement downward since then. They are now at their lowest levels since January. Officials want cases to decline or level out. Right now, they are.
Trajectory of lab-confirmed cases over 14 days
What it means: The number of people who have tested positive for the coronavirus over the last two weeks. Laboratories must report positive cases to the state.
Limitations: It can take a few days to get lab reports back. Not everyone with COVID-19 symptoms is getting tested, though the state changed its guidance on that in late April. It loosened the criteria further on May 15, pushing for more people to get tested. As the number of tests administered per day increase, we would expect this number to also increase.
Trend: Officials want new cases to decline or level out. Right now, they have not. North Carolina reported more than 800 cases on May 16, its largest single-day increase during the outbreak.
Positive tests as a percentage of total tests over 14 days
What it means: The total of positive tests each day divided by the number of completed tests. This figure adds context to the raw number of positive tests as testing increases.
North Carolina is calculating this number with information entered into its Electronic Disease Surveillance System to ensure a more accurate number. That is slightly different from publicly available data.
Limitations: Again, not everyone is getting tested. Labs are required to report their positive tests to the state, but not their negative results. So we don’t know exactly how many tests have been completed. Cohen said the state is getting the “vast, vast majority” of completed tests — positive and negative.
Trend: Officials want the percentage to decline or level out. Right now, it appears to be leveling. The rate has held steady at around 7%, which Cohen said is “in line” with the state’s target.
Trajectory of hospitalizations due to COVID-19
What it means: How many people are in the hospital due to the coronavirus. Hospitals self-report those numbers to the state.
Limitations: The percentage of hospitals reporting to the state each day varies, reaching highs of 90%, but lows of 60%. The number has gotten more consistent in recent weeks. The figure is a total number so it’s unclear how many new patients are entering the hospital and how many patients have left.
Trend: Officials want the numbers to decline or level out. There has been a slight uptick in hospitalizations over the last few days. But the state has plenty of available hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators, a point that Cohen stressed during the announcement to move into Phase 1.
Tests
When the benchmarks were set, North Carolina had been administering about 2,500 to 3,000 tests per day with the goal of pushing that number to 5,000 to 7,000 per day.
Some spikes in single-day totals can be attributable to new labs, which often report more than just the previous 24 hours. Negative test results are allowed to be reported in multi-day batches.
Status: The state has completed more than 6,000 tests each of the last six days, including more than 8,000 tests per day for five straight days. There are now more than 250 testing sites in North Carolina.
Contact tracing
When someone tests positive for coronavirus — or other diseases that the state wants to track — county health departments follow up with the patients to get more information, including who they have been in contact with.
On April 27, the state announced the Carolina Community Tracing Collaborative, an effort “to hire and train staff to support existing efforts of local health departments to track the transmission of COVID-19.” The state said it had 250 people doing contact tracing and wanted to increase that number to 500. It is now hiring, and about 4,000 people have applied.
North Carolina is also “looking for the best of the digital tracing technologies out there,” Cohen said. Tech giants Apple and Google have partnered on smartphone-based tracing technologies.
Status: The state said most recently it had 250 people working as contact tracers, not meeting its goal.
PPE
North Carolina wants to have a 30-day supply of personal protective equipment (or PPE) on hand to supply to local hospitals in the event of a potential outbreak.
It measures its supply based on the average of requests received during the month.
The state began releasing information about its stockpile of PPE on April 23. It updates that information each Monday.
Status: As of May 18, the state did not have a 30-day supply of protective gowns (0 day supply on hand). It had more than a 30-day supply of face shields (391 days), gloves (432 days), N95 masks (32 days) and surgical and procedure masks (269 days).
This story was originally published April 24, 2020 at 9:26 AM with the headline "These benchmarks will determine whether NC moves to Phase 2. Here’s how we’re doing.."
