Two NC cities among top 10 with best chance to rebound from coronavirus, report says
The coronavirus pandemic is likely to change the way an entire generation operates — and, as a result, where they live.
As the U.S. shifts into recovery mode, reopening local economies and working to quell a second wave, that means some cities will be better poised to recover than others, according to a report by Moody’s Analytics.
“The generation that is growing up today could remember the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on large, densely populated urban areas and be more likely than its predecessors to opt for less densely packed pastures in the decades to come,” Adam Kamins, senior regional economist at Moody’s Analytics, said in the report.
Moody’s Analytics is a subsidiary of Moody’s Corporation that operates separately from the company’s investor arm.
According to Kamins, there are two cities in North Carolina that fit the bill: Raleigh and Durham. One doesn’t outweigh the other in terms of a plausible recovery, as Moody’s Analytics doesn’t rank this grouping.
Here they are in alphabetical order:
Boise City, Idaho
Denver, Colorado
Durham, North Carolina
Madison, Wisconsin
Provo, Utah
Raleigh, North Carolina
Salt Lake City, Utah
San Jose, California
Tucson, Arizona
Washington, D.C.
National outlook
Kamins isn’t talking about short-term recovery.
The sun will come out tomorrow, but he said “it is far too early to predict with certainty where that sun will shine most brightly.” It is, however, “possible to begin to think about long-term regional ramifications.”
Cities like New York, Boston and San Francisco, which have traditionally drawn on a large, skilled workforce but operate in densely packed areas, are likely to be “the most scarred,” according to the report.
They’ll come out on the other side after the pandemic, but more people might be leaving the city than returning to it for a while.
“Places that are more spacious, rely more heavily on car travel, and provide ample access to single-family housing are likely to emerge as more attractive as a result, especially among those who choose to bypass the highly urbanized Northeast,” Kamins said in the report.
Standouts in North Carolina
By comparing population density with the percentage of jobs requiring a college degree across 100 metro areas, Kamins said Durham was a standout.
As a college town operating around Duke University, Durham’s educational requirements were partially inflated, according to the report. But Kamins said “it makes sense that dynamic economies built around a major university” might “enjoy a surge in growth in the years to come.”
He also compared educational attainment and the average population density across counties, against which Raleigh flourished.
“Fast-growing tech hubs in the West and South lead based on this metric,” Kamins said in the report. “Silicon Valley is nobody’s idea of an up-and-coming area. But there is a notable contrast between the San Jose metro area, with its sprawling tech campuses, and tightly packed San Francisco.”
It’s the same for Raleigh, which Kamins dubbed a “rapidly growing metro area.”
Lower population density but plenty of opportunity in the technology sector could make Raleigh “even more attractive in a new, post-COVID-19 world,” according to the report.
After the Great Recession, big metros were the first to bounce back, Kamins said.
“Tech-driven economies” are what drove gross domestic product gains at the time. (GDP measures an economy’s output and can be a good indicator of the size of an economy, VOX reported.)
“This time around, however, the most dynamic recoveries may well bypass traditional powerhouses,” according to the report.
This story was originally published May 13, 2020 at 12:25 PM with the headline "Two NC cities among top 10 with best chance to rebound from coronavirus, report says."
