Pandemic debate: Can you save people and save the economy at the same time?
Public officials in North Carolina and across the country are wrestling with a question that has no easy answer: How do you balance public health and safety against the economy and individual livelihoods?
The scope of the problem came into stark relief Thursday. Deaths from the coronavirus topped 1,000 nationally as a record 3.3 million Americans — including 200,000 in North Carolina — filed for unemployment.
The same day, Mecklenburg County instituted a three week stay-at-home order. At least a half-dozen other N.C. counties have done the same or are considering it.
But last week the president of the N.C. Chamber called shelter-at-home policies “a last-ditch resort.”
“Undoubtedly, public health and safety sits prominently as our lodestar,” Gary Salamido wrote, “but tripping the main breaker can only be a last resort.” Such an order, he added, would create “a massive disturbance that could create the opposite of its intended effect by interfering with the very economic activity that is protecting our state and its citizenry from disaster.”
That triggered a response from Carl Armato, president and CEO of Novant Health.
“Your message places the economy above the lives of the people of North Carolina,” he wrote Salamido. “I strongly urge you to reverse course and get on board with the advice of expert epidemiologists around the country. We have hours, not days, to help flatten the curve and with each hour that passes, more and more residents are coming into contact with others.”
On Tuesday President Donald Trump said he wants the economy “opened up and just raring to go by Easter.”
“Our people want to return to work,” he tweeted last week. “THE CURE CANNOT BE WORSE (by far) THAN THE PROBLEM!”
Others appear to agree.
“It is clearly urgent that we continue . . . the best practices to control the potential spread of COVID-19,” former Mecklenburg Commissioner Jim Puckett, a Republican, said in an email. “However, the shutdown of the majority of our economy, placing tens of thousands into economic distress with no deliverable solution is not the answer.”
Puckett also said, “We desperately need to find balance.”
‘The virus makes the timeline’
For their part, health care officials urge caution.
“You don’t make the timeline, the virus makes the timeline,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told CNN Wednesday.
Dr. Scott Rissmiller, executive vice president and Chief Physician Executive at Atrium Health, said how long the interventions last “all depends on how aggressively we practice shelter in place.”
“We completely understand the tension but . . . there’s a few things that we absolutely know work and absolutely know are crucial to do early and aggressively to slow the spread of the virus,” he said. “.... And if we do it well, it will result in a shorter timeline to where we can get back to a more normal pace of living.”
The New York Times worked with epidemiologists this week to explore the effect of public health interventions such as shelter in place. It found that the longer the interventions lasted the slower the rise of new cases of COVID-19.
At the same time, businesses in North Carolina and across the country are hurting.
Looking for data
“We’re obviously going to experience some degree of recession and there’s no way to speculate what it will look like,” said UNC Charlotte economist John Connaughton. If the interventions last longer, he added, “Then the recession will last longer.”
He said the restrictions could ease gradually. Maybe by region, if the region is not a particular “hot spot.” Or even by age, with more restrictions for the elderly.
“My guess is in two weeks and in some parts of the country we can pull back on draconian efforts,” he said. “I say that very guardedly . . . What you’re asking people to do is place a value on a human life.”
In a statement Thursday, the N.C. Chamber’s Salamido said, “We are not opposed to shelter in place.”
“What we would like is guidance on how long it would last and what criteria we should watch to indicate what is happening with the virus,” he said.
Former Gov. Pat McCrory, a Republican, has been talking about the issue with listeners on his morning show on WBT radio. He agreed that more measurable data would help inform policy decisions. But he’d also look for compromise.
“You have to have both the health care and business people at the table,” he said. “There may be a middle ground of common sense.”
This story was originally published March 27, 2020 at 5:45 AM.
