Which social distancing measures work the best? Here’s what a new study found
As states begin to reopen from coronavirus lockdowns, a new study analyzed the effect that different social distancing practices have had on the number of COVID-19 cases.
The study, by researchers from the University of Kentucky, Georgia State University and University of Louisville, considered the effects of closing schools, closing restaurants and bars, banning large gatherings and issuing shelter-in-place orders.
Researchers studied the growth of COVID-19 cases in counties over 58 days, from March 1 to April 27 — when Georgia became the first state to start lifting some social distancing restrictions. They also tracked the relationship between the social distancing policies in a certain county and the rise of cases there.
Bar and restaurant closures and shelter-in-place orders had a “statistically significant” impact on slowing COVID-19 cases, according to the study. Bans on large gatherings and closing schools didn’t have the same impact.
But the study might not have accounted for other effects of restrictions.
The researchers also pointed out that their data may be skewed because closing schools mainly affects children — the majority of whom get only mild COVID-19 symptoms — so infected kids “may not be included in confirmed cases.”
Another caveat is that, rather than stopping people from interacting, social distancing policies may just change how and where people socialize, researchers hypothesized. So a ban on formal group meetings could instead just lead people to meet unofficially.
“We cannot rule out the possibility that these null results are due to statistical imprecision, but it is also possible that both policies may displace social interaction rather than reducing it,” the authors wrote. “For example, school closures may have led families to continue social interactions outside of the school setting, such as at day care centers or parks.”
Researchers used an event study model to determine the impact of social distancing policies. Shelter-in-place orders reduced COVID-19 cases by 3 percentage points after 6 to 10 days since they were implemented, 4.5 percentage points after 11 to 15 days, 5.9 percentage points after 16 to 20 days, and 8.6 percentage points from day 21 onward.
All of the social distancing measures were implemented at least 10 days after March 1 — the start of the sample period — and at least 20 days before the end on April 27.
School closures and large gathering bans were shown to be “statistically insignificant.”
The model shows that COVID-19 cases would’ve been 10 times higher without stay-in-place orders and 35 times higher without any restrictions.
The majority of U.S. states have begun to reopen from coronavirus lockdowns in some capacity and cases keep going up as people go back to everyday life, The New York Times reported.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious diseases expert, said before Congress last week that reopening too quickly could lead to “some suffering and death that could be avoided, but could even set you back on the road to trying to get economic recovery,” according to The New York Times.
There are more than 1.5 million confirmed coronavirus cases in the U.S. and more than 4 million worldwide, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
This story was originally published May 19, 2020 at 4:45 PM with the headline "Which social distancing measures work the best? Here’s what a new study found."