Further reopening may be delayed as Meck, state see troubling COVID trends

State and local health officials are warily monitoring sharply rising coronavirus trends as North Carolina enters the third week of Phase Two, part of the governor’s plan to safely reopen businesses while quelling possible outbreaks.

But even as hospitalizations, the percentage of residents testing positive for COVID-19 and case totals appear to climb in the county and state, Mecklenburg County officials are opposed to adding restrictions to slow the spread of the virus — or more drastically, reverting to Phase One.

Instead, county Public Health Director Gibbie Harris said Friday the state’s move into Phase Three, slated to start as early as June 26, could be delayed.

“The way the numbers look right now, I would be surprised if we move fully into Phase Three,” Harris told reporters in a virtual media briefing Friday afternoon, the first update in three weeks. “We all prefer not to move backward. We would like to move forward.”

In Phase Three for North Carolina, restrictions would be loosened on mass gatherings, and capacity could increase at places like restaurants, bars, entertainment venues and houses of worship.

On Friday morning, Mecklenburg hit a new record high in single-day increases of coronavirus cases, adding 398 cases to its cumulative tally of 6,538, according to state health data. Harris said 123 county residents have died of coronavirus-related complications. Late Friday, Mecklenburg said it has seen a total of 6,367 cases among county residents.

“We’re not done,” Harris said. “We still have a pandemic on our hands.”

And state trends are increasing, too.

North Carolina marked its largest single-day increase in newly reported cases Friday, Gov. Roy Cooper said at a news conference Friday

State Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mandy Cohen said it’s clear viral spread has increased in North Carolina in the last few weeks since the state began reopening.

UNC Chapel Hill infectious disease modeling expert Kim Powers said it’s not surprising to see an increase in trends after easing restrictions – but the state’s trends don’t look good.

“I grow more concerned every day,” Powers said. “This reopening is looking like a failed experiment, where if things don’t miraculously somehow change really soon – it becomes increasingly frightening.”

‘Hear the call’

George Dunlap, chairman of the Mecklenburg County commissioners, said the region is reluctant to issue another stay-at-home order. That measure could be devastating to small businesses already struggling to stay afloat, he said.

But Harris said within a few weeks, social distancing metrics could return to where they were in March, before the local stay-at-home order took effect.

“The hope is that people will hear the call and respond in such a way that we don’t have to go back to where we started from,” Dunlap said in an interview. “We want to do things in the least restrictive manner, as long as we get compliance.”

Mecklenburg intends to significantly expand its coronavirus testing efforts to prevent future outbreaks, Harris has said throughout the week. About 2,000 residents are tested daily by Atrium Health and Novant Health, she said.

The county’s goal of testing 20,000 residents every day — which Harris announced Tuesday — will likely be reduced to reflect testing availability and resources of local healthcare providers.

New goals could range between 4,000 and 20,000, Harris said — though discussions are ongoing with NCDHHS.

Harris urged people who have participated in mass gatherings, including recent protests, to get tested for the coronavirus.

But Charlotte Mayor Vi Lyles, who marched with thousands of residents last week, has not been tested for COVID-19 — and “she currently has no plans to get tested,” city spokesman Jeremy Mills told The Charlotte Observer on Wednesday.

The latest emphasis on testing comes days after Mecklenburg finished a 30-day program to test 5% of its population, or about 55,500 people.

“We need to respond to our data and surge additional testing and tracing resources to several targeted communities and populations that have been hardest hit by COVID-19,” NCDHHS spokeswoman Kelly Haight Connor told the Observer Thursday. “NCDHHS is working with the local health departments to determine the appropriate targets for testing and tracing with an emphasis on historically marginalized and high-risk population groups.”

Trigger point

County Commissioner Susan Harden said she is concerned about the lack of communication from health officials and strategies to ensure residents “flatten the curve.”

”The messages are so mixed right now, from all over the place, that I feel like no wonder people are confused,” Harden said in an interview. “If the rise continues, this is a trigger point for us. I would like to hear from our hospitals (and) our health experts about at what point do we really start to send out the alarms?”

Commissioner Pat Cotham cautioned against creating more confusion over what is allowed to reopen and what might close down again, especially if Mecklenburg enacts regulations that are stricter than the governor’s.

Residents are becoming more frustrated with the pandemic’s ongoing limitations, she said.

”People make choices in their lives — people take risks,” Cotham said in an interview. “Maybe they’re not believing everything because a lot of things have changed. It’s hard to keep drinking the Kool-Aid when the Kool-Aid keeps changing.”

Most county commissioners say one of the easiest intervention tactics is to require people to wear masks or cloth face coverings.

Mecklenburg is following the governor’s guidelines, which strongly encourage — but do not require — that masks be worn in settings where social distancing could be difficult. Enforcing a mask mandate could be difficult, and not all leaders of Mecklenburg’s six towns are willing to comply, County Manager Dena Diorio has said.

Still, a mask mandate took effect in Orange County on Friday, with officials citing the risk of asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic individuals unknowingly spreading the virus. Since late April, Durham County residents have also been required to wear masks.

”If people could just wear a mask, we could continue to open up — and I really want to open up safely,” Elaine Powell, vice chair of the Mecklenburg County commissioners, said. “I think that’s our frustration. Masks are so simple.”

Jump in trends after reopening

Prior to Phase One in early May, Mecklenburg saw steady decreases in the average number of people hospitalized for the coronavirus and the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19. And county officials said the growth rate of new cases reported daily was “stable.”

Just before Phase Two started, Mecklenburg hospitalizations were slightly on the rise — with an average of 62 people hospitalized in the region’s acute care facilities, local data through May 20 showed. But the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19, an average of 6.3%, had marked a slight decrease in the previous two weeks.

County data didn’t reflect the impact of the phased reopening until about two weeks after each phase began, based on the incubation period of the virus.

That time frame includes the onset of symptoms — which research suggests most often takes place within four to five days of exposure but can take up to two weeks — and the time it takes to access testing and get results. Typical turnaround time for testing by hospital systems in Charlotte is one to two days, according to Harris.

Now, with data reflected from the move into each phase, Mecklenburg’s key coronavirus trends are steadily moving in the wrong direction, according to the latest information released Friday from county officials.

In the past week, an average of 101 people have been hospitalized in Mecklenburg with COVID-19, and an average of 10% of people tested for COVID-19 were positive.

County health officials had expected COVID-19 trends to rise as testing increased and residents began visiting local stores and restaurants again, health director Harris said in late May.

Social distancing has steadily decreased since the phased reopening, based on mobility tracking data, county officials said Friday. But social distancing is still higher than before the county’s stay-at-home order went into effect in March.

It’s clear something has to change, UNC expert Powers said.

“It certainly looks like we have a runaway train here,” Powers said. “And as it builds momentum, it becomes harder and harder to slow down.”

Observer reporter Sonia Rao contributed to this story.

This story was originally published June 12, 2020 at 2:15 PM.