Red, orange and yellow: NC launches new county alerts to help curb COVID-19 surges
As coronavirus cases and hospitalizations rise across the country, N.C. Gov. Roy Cooper announced a new alert system Tuesday to gauge COVID-19 spread at the county level throughout the state — and to help government officials and residents understand what actions may be needed to slow the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.
The alert system will be tiered into three levels: yellow means significant community spread; orange means substantial community spread; and red means critical community spread.
The state has included recommendations for enforcement for each county, but especially for orange and red counties. Cooper said it would be up to mayors, city councils and county commissioners in the color-coded counties — as well as business, faith and community leaders — to take action.
“This county alert system shows our viral hotspots,” Cooper said Tuesday at a press conference. “But let me be clear, the whole state is experiencing widespread transmission. Cases across the country are surging, forcing states to go backward. Right now our metrics are increasing, not surging. But a surge can happen quickly.”
Three factors will determine where a county ranks: rate of new cases, percentage of tests returned positive and impact on hospitals within the county.
Ten counties are currently classified as red, and 43 are classified as orange. The rest of the counties are yellow.
Johnston County is the only one in the Triangle area to be in the orange zone. All other Triangle counties are yellow.
The system follows standards created by the White House Coronavirus Task Force, and the state will update the map on a monthly basis.
There have been 317,495 cases of COVID-19 in North Carolina, as of Tuesday. Hospitalizations reached a new high on Tuesday at 1,501 along with a new record high of seven-day average of new cases.
The county codes do not translate into mandates at this time. Cooper said there is “a lot of weariness” about COVID-19, and these recommendations are a “renewed effort” to focus on enforcement, what is already in the law on occupancy limits, on mask wearing and gatherings — all to try to curb the numbers. He also hopes it encourages more “community buy-in.”
“Right now, these are strong recommendations,” Cooper said. “However, if our metrics keep moving in the wrong direction, the state could impose additional orders, either at a local or statewide level. As numbers worsen, we need to treat this virus like the deadly threat it still is.”
A call to action
The new county alert system comes just a week before Thanksgiving and as a warning to those who are considering traveling or being around those outside their immediate household.
To be classified as an orange county, there must be between 100 and 200 new cases per 100,000 people in the last 14 days. The percentage of tests returned positive must be between 8% and 10%, and there must be a moderate impact on the county’s hospitals.
To be classified as a red county, there must be over 200 new cases per 100,000 people in last 14 days. The percentage of tests returned positive must be over 10% and there must be a high impact on the county’s hospitals.
The impact on the county’s hospitals are gauged by the percentage of hospitalizations related to COVID-19, emergency department visits due to the virus, the amount of critical staffing shortages over the previous 14 days, and the number of staffed open hospital beds.
Dr. Mandy Cohen, Secretary of the N.C. Department of Health and Human Services, said no matter the county, there still needs to be a focus on masks and keeping indoor gatherings at fewer than 10 people.
“Every local community is going to have different drivers,” Cohen said. “We want to work with folks to tailor interventions that make sense.”
Last week, Cooper extended Phase 3 of reopening and reduced the limit on indoor gatherings from 25 people to 10. Outdoor gathering limits remain at 50 people. Phase 3 is set to expire Dec. 4.
“The science shows that the transmission of this virus is much greater indoors,” Cooper told reporters last week. “And the more people who are gathered, the easier this virus can spread. We saw increasing spread from social gatherings in October.”
Viral spread
Other states that loosened restrictions faster have imposed new rules recently as cases spike across the country.
As states in the Midwest have become COVID-19 hot spots, Cohen said last week they are clearly struggling and running out of hospital capacity.
In North Carolina, health officials are seeing increasing viral spread in rural areas. Cohen said last week those rural communities largely were spared earlier in the year, but are being hit now, especially as people let their guard down.
She said she was particularly concerned about hospital capacity in the Triad’s healthcare region.
In that healthcare region, 413 are currently hospitalized due to the coronavirus with 61 being admitted within the last day, according to DHHS data.
Cohen said she does not have any urgent concerns about statewide hospital capacity, but that they are starting to feel the strain.
Thanksgiving gatherings
Cooper and Cohen urged North Carolinians to celebrate with friends and families safely by adhering to mask-wearing recommendations, limiting gatherings to 10 or fewer people and holding those gatherings outside. People are also encouraged to get COVID-19 tests before visiting family.
“Be smart about your Thanksgiving plans and get creative to celebrate safely,” Cooper said.
He said that following guidelines is more important than ever.
“Now is not the time to give up and let more people die,” Cooper said.
With Phase 3 set to expire on Dec. 4, the governor said he’s likely to make some announcement about it the first part of that week.
North Carolina counties: What’s red, orange and yellow?
Here is how North Carolina’s 100 counties are categorized as of Nov. 17, 2020.
Red (10): Alexander, Avery, Columbus, Davie, Gaston, Hoke, Mitchell, Sampson, Wilkes and Wilson
Orange (43): Ashe, Bertie, Bladen, Cabarrus, Caldwell, Caswell, Catawba, Cherokee, Cleveland, Craven, Cumberland, Currituck, Dare, Duplin, Edgecombe, Forsyth, Greene, Halifax, Hertford, Iredell, Jackson, Johnston, Lee, Madison, Montgomery, Moore, Northampton, Pamlico, Pasquotank, Perquimans, Randolph, Richmond, Robeson, Rockingham, Rowan, Rutherford, Scotland, Stokes, Surrey, Swain, Vance, Warren and Yadkin
Yellow (47): Alamance, Alleghany, Anson, Beaufort, Brunswick, Buncombe, Burke, Camden, Carteret, Chatham, Chowan, Clay, Davidson, Durham, Franklin, Gates, Graham, Granville, Guilford, Harnett, Haywood, Henderson, Hyde, Jones, Lenoir, Lincoln, Macon, Martin, McDowell, Mecklenburg, Nash, New Hanover, Onslow, Orange, Pender, Person, Pitt, Polk, Stanly, Transylvania, Tyrrell, Union, Wake, Washington, Watauga, Wayne and Yancey
This story was originally published November 17, 2020 at 3:23 PM with the headline "Red, orange and yellow: NC launches new county alerts to help curb COVID-19 surges."
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