Days after Christmas, Mecklenburg County’s COVID positivity rate shatters record

The average COVID-19 positivity rate in Mecklenburg County soared to 15.6% in the week after Christmas, according to new data released Tuesday by health officials.

It’s a new high for the Charlotte area, which has seen dramatic increases in the number of coronavirus infections and hospitalizations over the last two months.

The positivity rate, which measures the percentage of COVID-19 tests that return positive results, has more than doubled since late November — and more than tripled since mid-October, when Mecklenburg’s coronavirus trends briefly stabilized, according to a Charlotte Observer analysis of public health data.

When Mecklenburg saw its first coronavirus peak in late July, the county’s positivity rate hovered around 11% on average per week.

New coronavirus data underscores the pandemic’s staggering toll in Mecklenburg, with trends likely only to deteriorate further as more people become infected after Christmas and New Year’s celebrations.

”COVID-19 is still very much in our community,” Dr. Meg Sullivan, the county’s medical director, said in a news conference Tuesday afternoon. “It’s really more important than ever that we adhere to all precautions, including limiting gatherings.”

By the end of January, the caseload should start to decline — assuming people follow coronavirus safeguards, Dr. David Priest, Novant infectious disease expert, told reporters Tuesday morning.

Mecklenburg has logged more than 66,400 coronavirus cases since March, the latest figures from the N.C. Department of Health and Human Services show.

Local officials say 601 residents have died of coronavirus-related complications as of Tuesday afternoon. Almost half of all deaths are linked to outbreaks at long-term care facilities, including nursing homes.

On average over the last two weeks, 663 new cases of COVID-19 are reported daily in Mecklenburg, according to DHHS. That figure has been steadily increasing since October and is far higher than the previous peak of infections recorded in late July, when the average was 332 new cases per day.

Record COVID-19 testing

In the week leading up to Christmas, an average of 5,222 Mecklenburg residents were tested daily for COVID-19. The unprecedented demand outpaced previous record levels seen before Thanksgiving, when roughly 4,800 tests were administered daily, an Observer analysis finds.

In the first few days of 2021 for which data is available, health department figures show testing demand as fallen to pre-holiday levels — around 4,200 people tested per day, on average.

Post-Christmas testing in and around Charlotte drove the record-high positivity rates.

On Dec. 28, the positivity rate was 18.2%. Three other days between Dec. 29 and Jan. 2, the rate was more than 16%.

Public health experts say a 7- or 14-day moving average offers the clearest understanding of the data, though the single-day spikes suggest sharply rising infections could soon translate into heightened demand for hospital-level care.

Based on the incubation period of the virus, it could take several weeks before the full scope of illnesses and hospitalizations are reflected in Mecklenburg’s coronavirus data. If people were exposed to COVID-19 New Year’s Day, they would start developing symptoms now and into the coming weeks, Priest said.

Already, Atrium Health and Novant Health are under increasing strain, with an average of 473 people hospitalized in the past week. On Sunday, hospitalizations surpassed 500 for the first time since the start of the pandemic.

Novant’s internal forecasts indicate hospitalizations will remain high over the next 14 days, Priest said. He urged people to avoid large gatherings, especially with vaccines slowly becoming available to the general public.

“We are not out of the woods yet with community spread at an all-time high,” Priest said. “While today we have the necessary beds, staffing (and) the personal protective equipment to care for all those who need it, we need the help of our community to ensure this continues to be the case.”

This story was originally published January 5, 2021 at 1:28 PM.