‘Cautiously optimistic.’ Drop in COVID cases, hospital patients in Mecklenburg
The average number of coronavirus patients hospitalized dropped to 306 in the past week —the lowest volume Mecklenburg County has seen in almost two months.
Dr. David Priest, Novant Health infectious diseases specialist, said Tuesday hospitalizations are expected to keep dropping over the next two weeks. At that point, he said, Novant’s internal modeling suggests the demand on hospitals could fall to a similar point seen in July — which had once been considered the Charlotte region’s COVID-19 “peak,” until a second wave of infections was set off at Thanksgiving and Christmas.
The latest county health data show Mecklenburg continuing a steady recovery from a post-holiday surge.
Still, several factors could unravel Charlotte’s progress.
“We’ll be waiting to see what impact large gatherings related to the Super Bowl or other fan celebrations have on our COVID numbers,” Priest told reporters Tuesday morning. “And we don’t know what role (coronavirus) variants that are spreading could have on our overall additional cases. We’ll be watching that closely.”
Mecklenburg has logged 90,768 coronavirus cases since the start of the pandemic, the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services reported Tuesday afternoon.
County officials say 808 residents have died of coronavirus-related complications. About 45% of all deaths are linked to COVID-19 outbreaks at long-term care facilities, like nursing homes.
Positivity rate
The percent of positive tests among Mecklenburg residents is 10%, as of Sunday, the latest data available.
Better or worse: Two weeks ago, the COVID-19 positivity rate was 12.2%.
The current figure is double the 5% threshold world health leaders see as necessary before easing pandemic restrictions. Mecklenburg reached that target in mid-October during a brief period of stable coronavirus conditions.
More context: The demand for coronavirus testing has decreased in recent weeks, even as testing remains widely available throughout Mecklenburg, Public Health Director Gibbie Harris has said.
On average, about 3,775 tests were administered in Mecklenburg in the past week — compared to around 5,550 before Christmas and 4,200 before New Year’s. With less testing, officials may have less information about the scope of infections in Mecklenburg, particularly asymptomatic spread of the virus.
New cases
Mecklenburg is adding 505 new cases daily, a nearly 35% decrease over the last two weeks.
The county has recorded 4,374 new infections so far this month. At this point in January, Mecklenburg had logged 7,674 infections, an Observer review of public health data finds.
Caveat: Despite signs of improvement, the virus spread remains too high across the county and North Carolina, health officials have warned. The public must stay vigilant and follow coronavirus safeguards, including mask-wearing and social distancing.
“Things are moving in the right direction very slowly, so we’re cautiously optimistic about that,” Harris told county commissioners Tuesday afternoon.
Vaccine roll-out
Mecklenburg County Public Health has received 15,050 first doses of the COVID-19 vaccine. But a higher number— 17,289 — has been administered, due to extra doses shipped in some Pfizer vials.
The county has also received 10,725 second doses and administered 4,313 shots.
Across the hospitals and other medical providers in Mecklenburg, 78,726 residents have received their first shots, which is roughly 7% of the county’s population.
“We’ve got a long way to go,” Harris said.
The health director acknowledged Mecklenburg still has a “lot of work to do” when it comes to equitable distribution of the vaccines. More than two-thirds of the people vaccinated by the health department are white, according to data released last week.