Fall could see higher temperatures, more rain than normal in Charlotte region

The Charlotte area could see warmer temperatures and more rain than usual this fall, thanks in part to a strong El Niño weather pattern forming in the central Pacific Ocean, National Weather Service meteorologist Jeffrey Taylor said.

Fall began at 4:21 a.m. Wednesday.

The outlook for October, November and December calls for a slightly better overall chance of above-normal temperatures and a better overall chance of above-normal rainfall, Taylor said.

That comes as good news to the parched Charlotte region, where rainfall is about 7 inches below normal this year.

While Mecklenburg County remains in a moderate drought, six N.C. counties to the west of it are in severe drought, including Gaston, Lincoln, Catawba and Cleveland, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Numerous S.C. counties also are in severe drought, including York, Chester and Lancaster.

Lake Norman, Lake Wylie and other lakes in the Catawba River chain remain well below normal.

Taylor said it’s impossible to predict how much rain will fall over the next three months, saying that’s like predicting down to a point how much the stock market will rise or fall.

We do know how much rain has fallen on average over the past 30 years: 3.4 inches in October, 3.14 in November and 3.25 in December, Taylor said.

Temperatures historically average about 72 for the high and 49 for the low in October, 62.4 for the high and 39 for the low in November, and 53 for the high and 32 for the low in December, Taylor said.

Recent observations of the ocean and atmosphere across the equatorial Pacific indicate strong El Niño conditions, according to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center.

El Niño is marked by warming waters. Its effects on the United States vary from one area to the next, Taylor said.

In the Charlotte area, El Niño usually brings more rain and cooler temperatures, Taylor said. The warmer-than-normal conditions predicted for the Charlotte area over the next three months could easily reverse course early next year, although that’s still unknown, he said.

El Niño is expected to peak in strength in late autumn or early winter and stick around into spring, according to the Climate Prediction Center.

This story was originally published September 22, 2015 at 12:42 PM with the headline "Fall could see higher temperatures, more rain than normal in Charlotte region."