Nearly 5,000 fewer students in CMS this year — an unprecedented drop

Charlotte-Mecklenburg Schools experienced an unprecedented year-over-year decline in enrollment, another consequence of the pandemic as the coronavirus upends public education across the country.

In the district’s annual headcount — a point-in-time estimated measurement of enrollment on the 20th day of school — there were 142,177 students. That’s down from last year’s headcount of 146,888, a 3.2% drop.

In recent years past, enrollment gains in CMS have generally been 1 to 2% annually. But, since 2016 — until this year — enrollment has been relatively flat.

In a normal year, a steep decline would be dire for the district’s budget, as state funding is directly tied to student enrollment. But legislation passed by the North Carolina General Assembly holds school districts harmless for the drop in enrollment this year, due to anticipated declines caused by COVID-19.

Districts across the state pushed for that measure, backed by the state board of education, saying that they would be unable to meet the needs of their students if they were to lose funding. The state allocates money to school districts based on enrollment projections, and money is taken back when enrollment falls short during the first two months of the school year.

“Among the many things that COVID-19 has revealed is the tenuous financial position that many of our districts face,” state board chairman Eric Davis said in August, the News and Observer reported. “It’s important in these uncertain times that we ensure adequate funding for our public schools.”

In CMS, the loss of nearly 5,000 students in a single year translates to funding for roughly 250 teaching positions. Despite the relief from the legislature, if the projected enrollment does not bounce back, school districts could see significant hits to their budget next fall.

District officials say there’s no singular explanation for the drop in the number of students enrolled this year in CMS.

“Parents are perhaps are making different choices based on their preferences right now,” said Akeshia Craven-Howell, associate superintendent for student assignment and school choice.

“(The drop) is atypical, and it’s not just CMS that is experiencing it.”

Nationally and locally, education leaders say the largest dip in enrollment comes from fewer children in kindergarten and first grade.

Craven-Howell said that could reflect families choosing to defer starting their children in school or withdrawing them to homeschool, in light of the pandemic.

CMS began the year with virtual-only instruction and board members recently approved a plan to gradually bring students back, beginning with lower grades. On Thursday night, the school board approved modifying that plan to slightly increase in-person instruction days for elementary children. The proposal, however, does not usher in a full return to classrooms right away.

Statewide, the interest in homeschooling was so intense over the summer that the website for declaring a home school was shut down multiple times due to high traffic. The number of notices of intent to start a home school filed during the summer of 2020 was nearly three times more than during the same period the previous year, according to Carolina Public Press.

Craven-Howell said the district does not formally track where students go once they leave CMS. But she noted that principals had reported that many families who were withdrawing from the district also expressed a desire to return once CMS shifts back to in-person learning.

The declines mirror a national trend, particularly among large, urban districts. Michael Casserly, executive director of the Council of Great City Schools, a network of urban school districts, said that its members reported an average decline of 3 to 5% in enrollment, with some reporting a decline as high as 9 or 10%.

Nationally, the withdrawal from public schools is also being driven by the youngest grades. An Education Week survey of 400 school district administrators and principals found that more than half reported a decline in kindergarten enrollment.

“Parents are just keeping those youngest of the young students home,” Casserly said.

CMS’s reported enrollment decline is roughly on par with the Council of Great City Schools network’s latest data.

Craven-Howell said that the enrollment declines varied across the district, and that some schools were as much as 10% below their projected numbers. She said she expects to see students come back as the district moves towards more in-person instruction, leading to an increase in enrollment.

“What that means is we have to be thoughtful in terms of how we’re staffing schools,” she said. “The other implication is that as a district, we should not assume every one of these students will come back, and we have to be thoughtful and intentional in reaching out to families.”

CMS’s budget process occurs on a district level and positions are allocated to individual schools based on expected enrollment, assistant financial officer Kim Brazzell said. While some schools are currently overstaffed, the district does not intend to reassign teachers out of those schools in anticipation of possible enrollment growth as the pandemic progresses and in-person learning increases.

“A lot of principals have been in touch with the parents,” she said. “That’s how they’re finding out from parents, ‘oh, he’s going to a charter or private school, but as soon as you guys are open he’s coming back.’... Should those kids return, we want (schools) to have the staff they planned on having there.”

The CMS board recently voted to approve a phased return to in-person learning, beginning with pre-K on Oct. 12. The district would add in elementary, middle and high schools in three subsequent phases at three week intervals, should the county’s coronavirus numbers improve or hold steady.

This story was originally published October 2, 2020 at 6:30 AM.