Why does Buttigieg lead in Iowa caucus results if Sanders has more votes?
Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont leads in the popular vote tally as delayed Iowa Democratic caucus results trickle in for the 2020 presidential race, a New York Times analysis of caucus data shows.
So how is it possible that Pete Buttigieg — the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana — is in the lead in the result that matters most from Monday’s contest?
It all comes down to something called “state delegate equivalents.” With 100 percent of precincts reporting Thursday evening, Buttigieg had about 564 state delegate equivalents to Sanders’ 562, according to the Iowa Democratic Party. Next in those results was Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, with roughly 387 state delegate equivalents.
With that margin of less than 0.1% between Buttigieg and Sanders as well as numerous reports of inconsistencies in the results, the Associated Press has been unable to declare a winner in the state.
The Washington Post reported Tuesday when 62 percent of votes were counted that “Buttigieg’s tentative edge in state delegate equivalents is most likely a result of him faring better than Sanders in rural areas, where there are more delegates per caucusgoer.”
This phenomenon might sound familiar to anyone who remembers the 2016 presidential election: Hillary Clinton won millions more votes across the U.S. overall, but President Trump won a substantial majority in electoral college votes, which determine the actual winner.
“This is possible because of how [state delegate equivalents] are distributed,” NBC political correspondent Steve Kornacki said on Twitter of Buttigieg’s lead. “Basically, rural areas tend to get more bang for their buck at the expense of college-heavy areas.”
State delegate equivalent projections matter because that’s the number that indicates how many Iowa delegates at the Democratic convention in Milwaukee will support each candidate. The Iowa Democratic Party defines state delegate equivalents, or SDEs, as “the projected number of state party convention delegates the candidates will receive based upon results of the precinct caucuses.”
The Iowa Democratic party doesn’t declare a winner of the caucuses, instead presenting results in terms of raw supporters at each caucus (the number where Sanders leads) and how those translate into state delegate equivalents (where Buttigieg has the edge) — but the party said it “encourages outlets to use the reported SDE number to determine a caucus winner.”
Kornacki pointed to Shelby County, a small rural area that leaned Buttigieg, where 266 people turned out — but where about 53 votes translate into one state delegate equivalent, according to Kornacki.
Compare that to Poweshiek, a college county leaning toward Sanders where 1,768 people caucused — but where 126 votes translated into one state delegate equivalent, according to Kornacki.
Now the Democratic candidates vying for the 2020 nomination for president turn their attention to New Hampshire, where primary voters are set to cast their ballots on Tuesday.
This story was originally published February 5, 2020 at 12:35 PM with the headline "Why does Buttigieg lead in Iowa caucus results if Sanders has more votes?."
