Can Democrats Flip the Senate? What Prediction Markets Say Six Months Out

With just under six months to go until the midterm elections on November 3, prediction markets are listing Democrats as favorites in many of the individual races they need to win to gain control of the Senate, yet markets remain even for overall control of Congress’ upper chamber.

Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority, meaning Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51 and take control.

Prediction markets like Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated exchange, and Polymarket, a crypto-based market, let traders buy and sell event contracts tied to political outcomes. These markets are watched closely by strategists and political commentators as they update in real time and provide a signal of how participants are pricing uncertainty.

However, they are imperfect indicators, as pricing can be influenced by a number of factors. Prediction markets are therefore merely signals and not forecasts, and in this case, much can still change before November.

Individual Senate Odds

On Kalshi and Polymarket, Democrats are currently priced with higher chances in a number of states central to the Senate majority fight-Alaska, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Ohio.

These prices were listed as of Monday at around 9 a.m. ET:

• Alaska:Kalshi‘s market implies a 58 percent chance that a Democrat will win the seat, while Polymarket suggests a 68 percent chance that a Democrat will win.
• Georgia:Kalshi shows an 82 percent chance of a Democrat win, Polymarket 85 percent.
• Maine:Kalshi, 68 percent chance of a Democratic win, Polymarket 68 percent.
• Michigan:Kalshi, 78 percent chance of a Democratic victory, Polymarket 77 percent.
• New Hampshire:Kalshi, 82 percent chance of a Democratic win, Polymarket 85 percent.
• North Carolina:Kalshi, 86 percent chance of a Democratic win, Polymarket 85 percent.
• Ohio:Kalshi, 57 percent chance of a Democratic win, Polymarket 60 percent.

However, while these numbers may seem like things are shaping up in the favor of the Democratic Party, they do not reflect the full picture.

Senate Control Odds

Despite favorable individual race prices, markets for overall Senate control are essentially even, meaning the Senate is still up for grabs.

In Kalshi’s “Which party will win the U.S. Senate?” the odds are at around 52 percent Republican and 48 percent Democratic, and on Polymarket’s “Which party will win the Senate in 2026?” it is a 50/50 split.

Late campaign shifts, variations in voter turnout, and national mood remain big unknowns this far from the midterms, and thin liquidity in individual contracts, short‑term overreaction to headlines and partisan trading can all distort prices on these markets, so prices will likely continue to change.

What Polling Shows

Traditional analysts also largely agree that the competition is tight, with current forecasts leaning toward Republicans retaining control. The Cook Political Report's Senate race ratings show that there are 15 solid Republican races, three that are likely Republican, nine solidly Democratic and one likely Democratic.

Georgia, North Carolina and New Hampshire are leaning Democratic, while Maine, Michigan and Ohio are listed as toss-ups and Alaska as leaning Republican.

Recent polls across the seven states show a similar picture:

• Alaska: The Democratic candidate, former Representative Mary Peltola, has 50 percent of the vote to Republican Senator Dan Sullivan’s 43 percent in a poll by Alaska Survey Research, conducted April 16-19, with a sample size of almost 2,000 likely voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
• Georgia: Recent polls show incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff leading by varying margins against Republican opponents, according to those listed on RealClear Polling.
• Maine: Democratic Graham Platner remains ahead of incumbent Republican Susan Collins across a number on polls on RealClear Polling.
• Michigan: Recent polling has shown the race is close for the open seat between Republican former Representative Mike Rogers and each of his potential Democratic opponents-Representative Haley Stevens, state Senator Mallory McMorrow and Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, according to RealClear Polling.
• New Hampshire: A University of New Hampshire poll, conducted April 17-20 with a sample size of 1,129 likely voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points, has the Democratic Representative Chris Pappas ahead of former Governor Chris Sununu, 49 percent to 42 percent.
• North Carolina: A High Point University/YouGov poll has Democratic former Governor Roy Cooper ahead of former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley, 50 percent to 42 percent. The poll had a sample size of 703 likely voters and was conducted March 26-April 6, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
• Ohio: Republican Senator Jon Husted is slightly favored over Democratic former Senator Sherrod Brown, 50 percent to 47 percent, though it is within the margin of error, in a Bowling Green State University/YouGov poll conducted April 7-14, with a sample size of 1,000 registered voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

Taken together, both prediction markets and polling suggest Democrats have a possible-if not likely-path to flipping the Senate. They are favored in several races they probably need to win.

With months still to go until the midterms, shifts in voter turnout, candidate dynamics and the broader national environment could quickly disrupt the odds, so the markets and polls should be taken to reflect deep uncertainty rather than a clear partisan edge.

2026 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.

This story was originally published May 4, 2026 at 2:00 PM.