America's Top CEOs Raise Alarm About Iran War-'Recession'

A number of business leaders are warning that the fallout from the Iran war could be pushing the U.S. economy toward the brink of a major downturn.

On Thursday, Whirlpool, a leading U.S. home appliance manufacturer, reported that revenues fell nearly 10 percent year-over-year as North American net sales slid over 7 percent on the back of what the company said was a “recession-level industry decline” caused by the war.

In a subsequent earnings call, CEO Marc Bitzer said the drop was “similar to what we have observed during the global financial crisis and even higher than during other recessionary periods.”

The company has slashed its full-year guidance given what Bitzer described as a “rapid deterioration of the macro environment since late February.”

Why It Matters Now

Since the conflict began on February 28, economists and leading industry figures have warned that energy market disruptions in particular could spill into the U.S. and worsen what was already a precarious economic situation. The Trump administration has, in response, maintained that any effects will fade swiftly once the war ends, and that these short-lived consequences are a reasonable trade-off for curbing Tehran's alleged nuclear-weapon ambitions.

Why Are CEOs Issuing Recession Warnings?

On Thursday, Whirlpool's CEO noted the near-record low levels of consumer confidence as a key headwind during the quarter-pushing discretionary demand down by around 15 percent-but said he anticipates a slow recovery over the coming months.

With these comments, Whirlpool joins several other major firms across a number of industries whose executives have sounded the alarm over the impact of the war on their operations and America’s economic outlook.

In his annual letter to shareholders in early April, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said that the war could result in “stickier inflation and ultimately higher interest rates than markets currently expect.” He went on to warn that surging oil prices had been cited as the main reasons behind large recessions in 1974 and 1982.

Despite the tail winds the U.S. could rely on, such as fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill, Dimon said the “skunk at the party” would be rising inflation that would “cause interest rates to rise and asset prices to drop.”

On Monday, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said that oil shortages caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz were having an impact “potentially as big as in the 1970s.” In remarks quoted by Reuters, Wirth said the crisis could lead to severe supply constraints and that countries, especially those in Asia, would have to adjust accordingly.

“Demand needs to move to meet supply,” he added. “Economies are going to have to slow.”

And while oil majors have been among the firms to profit from these supply disruptions, other industries have fared far worse.

In April, LVMH CEO Bernard Arnault said that the crisis in the Middle East, barring some swift resolution, could result in a “world catastrophe” with a “very serious and very negative economic impact.” This came after the luxury goods giant reported that the conflict had impacted growth in the first quarter.

But other executives have been more measured in their assessment of the war's economic consequences. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has said the conflict could give way to a sustained period of “abundance and growth” if Iran was folded into the “world community” following its conclusion.

And Dimon said in mid-April that the U.S. economy was proving “resilient,” thanks to deregulatory moves and AI-related investments, “with consumers still earning and spending and businesses still healthy.”

Economist Ed Yardeni similarly told Newsweek that, since the war began, most experts had been “surprised by the resilience of consumer spending,” which accounts for around two-thirds of U.S. economic activity.

“There’s not much evidence that the war depressed consumer spending or capital spending,” he said. “So, I think we’re going to have a rebalance in economic growth in the second, third, and fourth quarters.”

Yardeni added that a lot would hinge on the duration of hostilities and whether the warring sides can transition from the current “stalemate status” to a more complete resolution.

However, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, believes much of the economic damage from the war is yet to be felt.

“The higher energy and other commodity prices caused by the war threaten to do even more economic damage than the tariffs, further undermining growth and pushing inflation higher,” he wrote on X. “The U.S. economy is resilient, but just how resilient is set to be tested.”

What Happens Next

Despite recent signs of progress in peace negotiations, with Tehran considering Washington's proposal to bring the war to a close, Thursday saw a renewal of hostilities with an exchange of fire between U.S. and Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz.

However, President Donald Trump said that the ceasefire remains in effect despite the “love tap” strikes.

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This story was originally published May 8, 2026 at 8:14 AM.