How China Could Help Solve Trump's Iran Nuclear Problem
With new clashes across the Persian Gulf and Israeli strikes in Lebanon testing the limits of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, the fate of Iranian nuclear material remains a central sticking point in the United States and Iran’s attempts to negotiate an end to the war.
China could emerge as an unlikely solution to the impasse-that is, if the White House were to accept its top rival stepping in, Tehran were to accept foreign power involvement, and Beijing were to agree to such a high-stakes geopolitical gambit.
President Donald Trump has called for the destruction or handover of all of Iran’s highly enriched uranium, which he often refers to as “nuclear dust” due to U.S.-Israeli strikes targeting facilities since the conflict launched in February and a previous round of U.S.-Israeli attacks in June of last year. Tehran maintains that it reserves the right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes on its soil as a member of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, though it has expressed some openness to pausing nuclear activities for a set number of years.
Trump stated last week that his demand would entail the removal of Iranian uranium by the U.S., which he described as one of only two nations capable of conducting such an operation. The other, he argued, is China.
The U.S. leader had earlier said he was “not comfortable” with the idea of China playing a role in the process. But Beijing may prove a more palatable option for Tehran given the robust ties between the two countries.
Joseph Rodgers, deputy director and fellow with the Project on Nuclear Issues at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that Trump’s position regarding Iran’s uranium stockpile has changed over time, with the president’s suggestion that the International Atomic Energy Agency play a role indicating an openness for third-party coordination.
Rodgers said he was “skeptical” about the feasibility of such an arrangement. However, he pointed out it could prove a lucrative bet if Chinese President Xi Jinping were to pull it off.
“If China plays a mediation role and takes control of Iran’s HEU stockpiles, it would be a huge diplomatic win for the PRC,” Rodgers told Newsweek. “The global community would interpret this as China strengthening the nonproliferation regime and contributing to peace and stability. Washington would be seen as ceding nonproliferation leadership to Beijing.”
The IAEA did not respond to Newsweek‘s request for comment on the possible arrangement.
Backdoor Diplomacy
The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has had global ramifications from which China has not been immune. Iran serves as a key discount energy supplier for China, and the conflict’s disruption of oil and gas trade through the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint has throttled shipments from all Persian Gulf states and sent international prices soaring.
Chinese officials have consistently called for an immediate end to the conflict, a sentiment reiterated to Newsweek by Chinese Ambassador Xie Feng shortly before Trump’s high-profile meeting with Xi in Beijing last month. They’ve also expressed interest in supporting peace efforts.
“Since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, China has maintained close communication with all relevant parties, including Iran, and has been making active efforts to promote ceasefire and peace,” the spokesperson to the Chinese Embassy to the U.S. told Newsweek in a statement. “Guided by the spirit of President Xi Jinping's four propositions, we will continue playing an active role in restoring peace and tranquility to the Middle East and Gulf region at an early date.”
Xi’s four points, released in April, outlined the need for commitment to the principles of peaceful coexistence, national sovereignty, international rule of law and development and security. The plan received support from Iran, and Trump credited Beijing with getting Tehran to the negotiating table in the first place.
“On the Iranian nuclear issue, China always supports a peaceful resolution through dialogue and negotiation,” the Chinese Embassy spokesperson said. “We hope relevant parties will seize the opportunity and find a solution that accommodates the legitimate concerns of all sides through negotiation.”
“China will continue playing a constructive role in the political and diplomatic settlement of the Iranian nuclear issue to safeguard the international nuclear nonproliferation regime and promote peace and stability in the Middle East and beyond,” the spokesperson said.
Whether this translates into a more active part in a future deal remains to be seen. Beijing already demonstrated its Middle East diplomatic clout by overseeing an Iran-Saudi reconciliation agreement in March 2023.
While the pact has been overshadowed by regional turmoil that has since seen the two nations clash, their continued contact up until the advent of the latest war was largely due to the China-backed agreement.
A Chinese effort to support the extraction of enriched nuclear material on the heels of a hot war in the Middle East would prove an even more ambitious turn, one that would also necessitate buy-in from the U.S.
“I don’t think China’s historical stance of non-intervention would prohibit Xi from playing a mediator role,” Rodgers said. “I expect that if Beijing gets involved, it will do so very carefully. I don’t expect China to get ahead of the U.S. and side with Iran by stating they have agreed to take the nuclear material. Rather, I would expect cautious backdoor diplomacy.”
Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, argued that, without a broader deal to address the future of Iran’s nuclear program, the effort may lack strategic significance, even if China indeed had the capability to carry out the task.
“It’s technically feasible but I don’t see what that accomplishes in isolation from a comprehensive agreement that prevents Iran from simply producing more HEU,” Lewis told Newsweek.
What it might achieve, however, is an offramp for Trump, who Lewis said could “pretend he’s achieved his goals, similar to the way he painted the limited strike previously as having ‘obliterated’ Iran’s nuclear program when it did nothing of the sort.”
China’s Chance to Shine
For Xi, negotiating a front-line position for China in resolving the Iran crisis would help cement the nation’s superpower status, one that has been forged largely through eclipsing the U.S.’s economic and diplomatic clout abroad.
“As China has expanded its geoeconomic influence globally, it has also sought to strengthen its geopolitical influence,” Tong Zhao, a senior fellow with the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told Newsweek. “In the Middle East, Beijing recognizes the complexity of regional geopolitics and has been careful to avoid becoming entangled in unnecessary crises or assuming major strategic burdens.”
“Even so, China has shown interest in projecting itself as a constructive political actor and in playing a mediating role in the current conflict,” Zhao said. “Doing so could support China's broader competition with the United States by enhancing its regional and international standing. The issue of Iranian uranium presents one potential opportunity.”
He outlined several ways in which Beijing could participate. The option of sending personnel to extract the buried uranium from bombed-out underground facilities “may be particularly suitable for China because it could avoid the political sensitivity and potential humiliation, from Tehran's perspective, of allowing U.S. personnel on the ground to recover Iranian nuclear material.”
Zhao said China could also handle the sensitive nuclear material, such as storing highly enriched uranium in its current form, diluting it to lower enrichment levels or converting it into reactor fuel, all depending on the conditions of an eventual U.S.-Iran deal and the availability of Chinese storage facilities.
But wading too deep into the murky waters of the U.S.-Iran feud also has its drawbacks. Iran, while traditionally skeptical of tying its security to foreign powers, has sought closer defense cooperation with China in recent years and has sought to showcase its great-power partnerships as a means of deterring further U.S. and Israeli military action, in ways that may not fully align with China’s risk-averse approach.
“A broader political question is whether sending nuclear material to China would create expectations of some form of Chinese security commitment,” Zhao said. “Iran could interpret such an arrangement as implying that China would be expected to support or defend Iran if the United States were to violate a future agreement and launch another attack.”
“This is precisely the type of strategic risk China has traditionally been reluctant to assume,” he added.
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This story was originally published June 4, 2026 at 4:00 AM.