Democrats hold financial edge in three of Mecklenburg’s most competitive legislative districts
Democratic incumbents have a significant financial edge over their Republican rivals in three of Mecklenburg County’s most competitive legislative races.
Democratic Sen. Jeff Jackson and Rep. Rachel Hunt each have a 13-1 cash advantage over their GOP opponents. Rep. Christy Clark also has more cash on hand than her Republican challenger.
Jackson faces political newcomer Sonja Nichols in Senate District 37. The two House members each face a rematch with former GOP legislators.
Hunt is running against former Rep. Bill Brawley in southeast Mecklenburg’s House District 103 while Clark faces former Rep. John Bradford in north Mecklenburg’s District 98.
The Democratic fundraising advantage reflects a national pattern as the party hopes to make gains in Congress. In North Carolina, it’s a little more complicated.
The state Democratic Party has raised $4.7 million this cycle to the state GOP’s $1.8 million, according to new reports filed with the State Board of Elections. But the Senate Majority Fund, an arm of Senate Republicans, reported an additional $876,000 while GOP leaders are sitting on war chests they’re expected to share.
Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger, for example, reported $1.3 million cash on hand at the end of June. House Speaker Tim Moore reported just over $1 million. Outside groups on both sides are also expected to weigh in before November.
At stake is control of the General Assembly, which Republicans have enjoyed for a decade. Whoever wins in 2020 will redraw legislative and congressional districts for the next 10 years.
Democrats need a net gain of five seats to take over the Senate and six in the House. For their part, Republicans are trying to regain the super-majorities they lost in 2018. That was when Democrats swept every legislative race in Wake County and all but one in Mecklenburg.
After all the spending and campaigning, one analyst doesn’t expect much to change this year.
“I think we’re going to have a status quo election,” said Anna Beavon Gravely, executive director of NC FREE, which tracks legislative elections.
Here’s a look at Mecklenburg’s three most competitive races according to an analysis of current ratings.
Senate District 37
Jackson’s district was redrawn dramatically last year.
Once centered in central and east Charlotte, it now spreads into southeast Charlotte and takes in several precincts that had been represented by then-Sen. Dan Bishop, a Republican. According to ratings by the conservative Civitas Institute, the district barely “leans Democrat.”
Jackson, an attorney who explored a U.S. Senate run, has raised $509,000 for the race and has $397,000 on hand.
Nichols, a first time candidate, has raised $151,000 and has about $30,000 on hand. She’s contributed at least $64,000 to her campaign.
“I don’t care how much money Jeff is going to raise, I’m going to beat him,” she said Tuesday.
Nichols is the owner of Nicholant Enterprises, a sort of venture capital firm she describes as an “angel fund” company. She’s been active on civic boards including the Mint Museum and served as president of Good Friends Charlotte, which last year raised a record $500,000 for the city’s disadvantaged.
Republicans say they’re not worried about the money. “Sonja is in good shape,” said Dylan Watts, director of the GOP Senate Caucus.
Jackson said money will be important in a new district in a crowded election year.
“One of the biggest challenges in the race is going to be how far down the ballot we are,” he said. “So you can’t really count on your people showing up and going all the way down. So you’ve got to communicate with them.”
Libertarian Jeff Scott also is running.
House District 103
No House race was closer in 2018 than the contest that pitted Brawley, then-House Finance chairman, against the daughter of former Gov. Jim Hunt.
After a lengthy and disputed recount, Hunt won by 68 votes. It was the year’s last legislative race to be decided.
It also was one of North Carolina’s most expensive races. Hunt raised over $1.2 million and Brawley, over $410,000.
New reports show that Hunt has raised $394,000 and has $335,000 cash on hand. Brawley raised $56,000. He has $26,000 in cash.
The district changed slightly in the 2019 redistricting. Catawba College political scientist Michael Bitzer found that it now tilts Democratic. Civitas calls it a tossup.
“I’m running as hard as I can,” Hunt said Tuesday. “I’m running as if it’s the same district as it was last time and that I can lose.”
Brawley could not be reached.
House District 98
In 2018 Clark beat Bradford by 415 votes in one of the state’s closest House races. While competitive, the district still leans Republican after last year’s redistricting.
Two years ago Clark and her allies outspent Bradford 4-1. This year she has raised nearly $250,000 to his $136,000, She has $199,000 cash on hand. He has $134,000.
“We know the district is still leaning red and we have an uphill battle,” Clark said Tuesday. “We knew in 2018 that it was going to come down to hundreds of votes, and we expect it to again in 2020.”
Bradford could not be reached Tuesday.
This story was originally published July 14, 2020 at 5:31 PM.
