As census wraps up early, NC risks undercounting vulnerable populations, experts say
After a series of legal battles, the census count is wrapping up over two weeks early, jeopardizing the accuracy of data used to determine billions in federal funding for North Carolina, data experts and community advocates say.
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled Tuesday that the Trump administration could end the 2020 Census ahead of schedule while it appeals a lower court ruling that required it to continue through the end of the month. Hours later, the U.S. Census Bureau announced it would stop the count on Thursday.
Community organizers and data experts say the decision could result in an undercount, especially in hard-to-reach communities. And they say it calls into question the accuracy of the data, as census workers had limited time to visit the 1.6 million households statewide who had not responded when they started going door to door in August.
“I do have real concerns,” said Jessica Stanford, a demographic analyst with UNC Chapel Hill’s Carolina Demography, a population research center.
“Particularly because the populations that are less likely to respond are the populations which benefit most from those federal programs. ... If they are not adequately represented, they have the most at stake from an undercount.”
The once-in-a-decade survey was delayed until the end of October after the coronavirus shut down field operations, but in early August, the Census Bureau reversed course and announced the count would wind down at the end of September. The bureau did so to meet a Dec. 31 deadline to provide the figures for congressional redistricting.
That decision was met with a lawsuit from a coalition of state and local governments, as well as advocacy groups who argued that such a move would harm the accuracy of the data collected and was motivated by politics.
The census is used to determine funding for services, such as hospitals, schools, roads, housing and healthcare. It’s also the basis for political representation, and North Carolina is expected to pick up a 14th congressional seat because of the state’s rapid growth.
The Census Bureau’s press office did not answer a question from the Observer about accuracy concerns, instead pointing to a release on its website. In that release, the bureau said “well over 99.9% of housing units have been accounted for” in the count.
““The Trump Administration’s decision to end the Census early, and the Supreme Court’s acquiescence to that decision, will deprive cities like Charlotte and counties like Mecklenburg of critical federal funding and proportional representation in Congress and in the North Carolina General Assembly,” Rep. Alma Adams, whose district covers much of Charlotte, said in an emailed statement.
Data and concerns
Mecklenburg County’s self-response rate is around 67.5% as of Tuesday, according to Census Bureau data.
The bureau says that over 99.9% of housing units have been accounted for in the Charlotte field office, which includes Mecklenburg and Union counties. That includes those counted through self-response as well as the period in which census takers go door to door, known as the non-response follow-up.
But being counted during the non-response follow-up does not necessarily mean that a census worker directly spoke to that individual, said Bob Coats, the Governor’s Census Liaison. When enumerators cannot reach a household, they rely on other methods, including interviewing neighbors or referring to other government records to fill in the data.
But Coats said those methods are not as accurate, and he worries that the shorter time frame could mean workers are relying on them more often.
The census directly impacts the allocation of $43.8 billion each year in federal funding for the state, according to an analysis from Carolina Demography.
“Not counting people in the census doesn’t mean they don’t exist in your community,” Coats said. “It means the local governments are going to have to struggle to find ways to meet the needs of people who are there.”
Disparities in response rates
Mecklenburg County slightly surpassed its self-response rate during the 2010 Census of 67.3%.
Statewide, that figure fell short of its 2010 level, at 63.2% as of Wednesday. Wake, Durham and Orange counties had self-response rates of 73.2%, 61.8% and 72.8%, respectively.
But the share of the population who responded to the survey varies dramatically within counties, including in Mecklenburg. Traditionally hard-to-count populations include Black and Hispanic residents, young children and residents of rural areas.
Response rates range from 34% near UNC Charlotte to 91% in south Charlotte near Interstate 485 and Weddington Road, according to an Observer analysis of Census Bureau data.
South Charlotte, especially the area between South Boulevard to the west and Monroe Road to the east, saw some of the highest rates.
The Ballantyne area had a 90% response rate, according to the data. That area is 82% white.
On the other hand, some of the county’s lowest response rates came from the low-income areas just west and north of uptown. Rates there hover between 50% and 60%.
The area just north of uptown near North Tryon Street and Matheson Avenue had one of the lowest response rates at 45%. Black people make up 87% of the population there.
Maura Chavez, Latinx complete count coordinator with nonprofit Enlace, said her group had been planning outreach until the end of the month, including tutorials for people who may not know how to fill out the survey. She expects that there will be an undercount of the Hispanic population.
“We’ve tried to do the best we can,” she said. “We can’t say we completely accomplished everything that we set out to do. Because of this uncertainty it was hard to plan.”
James Lee, a project manager working on census awareness efforts in hard-to-count communities with nonprofit Project 70Forward, said the organization largely wrapped up its activities at the end of September, after the initial announcement that the count would wrap up early.
“These numbers that are in some folks’ heads are actually equivalent to people who are breathing, who are hurting,” he said. “There are still those families that are going to lack because we don’t get a complete count because of politics or whatever you want to call it.”
Households have until 5:59 a.m. EDT on Friday, Oct. 16, to fill out the census online at 2020Census.gov. To complete it by phone, call 844-330-2020 for English or 844-468-2020 for Spanish before the end of the typical hours on October 15 (hours vary depending on the language, check the website for a complete list). Paper responses must be postmarked by Oct. 15.
This story was originally published October 14, 2020 at 6:36 PM.
