Who is Trump likely to pardon before Biden takes office? Here’s what betting odds say

President Donald Trump is expected to pass out pardons before Joe Biden takes office next month, according to media reports.

Betting odds provide a glimpse as to whom the president might pardon in the next seven weeks.

Donald Trump

Let’s start with the president, as some reports say Trump may preemptively issue a pardon to himself. Trump has discussed pardons “that could test the boundaries of his constitutional power,” according to the New York Times.

Despite the complications of a self-pardon, bookmakers think Trump may accomplish it. SportsBettingDime.ag lists odds at +160 that Trump will pardon himself, meaning a $100 bet would net $260, including the money wagered.

The odds are +175 at OddsChecker.com, meaning they give Trump a 36.36% chance of pardoning himself.

“No president has ever pardoned himself before in the history of the US, but this president has broken the mold in so many ways that it wouldn’t be a surprise were it to come to pass,” Odds Checker spokesperson Tom Dodd said.

However, the nuances of a self-pardon are complicated. Justice Department policy written during the Nixon administration says “under the fundamental rule that no one may be a judge in his own case, the President cannot pardon himself.”

But there are loopholes. Trump could invoke the 25th Amendment — which could allow Vice President Mike Pence, as acting president, to pardon Trump, Time reported.

Jed Shugerman, a law professor at Fordham University, told The Hill there is not a consensus about whether a self-pardon is constitutional. If Trump were to pardon himself, it would like end up before the Supreme Court to decide.

Fox News host Sean Hannity is among the people in Trump’s ear who thinks the president should take matters into his own hands.

“The president out the door needs to pardon his whole family and himself,” Hannity said Monday, according to The Hill.

Trump said in 2018 he has “the absolute right to pardon” himself.

“But why would I do that when I have done nothing wrong?” Trump added.

Trump’s adult children

Donald Trump Jr., Eric Trump and Ivanka Trump are among the people the president may pardon, according to Politico. All three were involved in his election campaigns, with Ivanka and her husband, Jared Kushner, also being key members of the White House administration.

The New York Times reported Trump has discussed with his advisers pardoning his three eldest children.

So could it happen? According to odds on SportsBetting.ag, it’s likely all three will be pardoned. Ivanka is given the best odds of the three at -200, while Eric’s odds sit at -150 and Trump Jr. at -140.

Odds on BetOnline.ag for the three children are at -300 each, with -1000 odds Trump will issue a pardon to at least one of the three.

“There is no easy way to calculate this mathematically, but we felt initially when putting these odds up for betting that it is likely he will pardon anyone named Trump,” Adam Burns, Sports Book Manager at BetOnline, told McClatchy News. “However, it seems bettors disagree as we are seeing two thirds of the bets come in on “No” that he will not and therefore we have already moved the odds a bit.”

None of the three have been charged with federal crimes.

Rudy Giuliani

Trump’s personal lawyer is also among the individuals whom the president has discussed issuing a pardon, The New York Times reported.

But Giuliani, the former mayor of New York City, told CNN, “The (New York) Times is completely wrong” about him asking around for a pardon.

Odds for Giuliani sit at +200 on Sports Betting Dime, which also lists as the best “value play,” meaning betting on him getting pardoned could provide the best bang for your buck.

“Giuliani is under investigation for possible violations of lobbying law,” the website said. “He’s proven a loyal soldier. He’s destroyed his reputation by fronting conspiracy theories about the 2020 election without providing any evidence.”

His odds of a pardon are much higher at BetOnline, showing bookmakers think he’s favored to receive a pardon at -200. SportsBetting.AG show his odds at -140.

Paul Manafort and others

Manafort, Trump’s former campaign adviser serving time on fraud and conspiracy charges, is in home confinement as a part of his 7-year prison sentencing, the Washington Post reported. He’s referred to by the Post as one of the “most logical candidates for a pardon.”

Oddsmakers seem to agree, as he was given the best odds for a pardon by Sports Betting Dime. The website lists his odds at -400, slightly better than George Papadopoulos’ -350 odds.

Papadopoulos, a member of Trump’s 2016 campaign, pleaded guilty in 2017 to lying to federal agents during the Russia investigation.

He told WLS this week that he would be “honored” to receive a pardon from Trump.

Other individuals Sports Betting Dime leans toward the president pardoning include other former Trump aides Rick Gates (-350) and Steve Bannon (-250).

This story was originally published December 4, 2020 at 3:14 PM with the headline "Who is Trump likely to pardon before Biden takes office? Here’s what betting odds say."