Take a closer look at North Carolina’s approved political maps for Congress, legislature
The three maps that will help define North Carolina’s political future were passed Nov. 4 by the Republican-led state legislature.
They’ll be what North Carolina uses in every election for the next decade, unless a court orders them to be re-drawn. One lawsuit is already pending and more are expected. But as they look now, the maps give a glimpse at how legislators will be elected in the future in the state legislature as well as for the state’s 14 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.
All the new maps would give Republicans a sizable advantage, even if the two parties roughly split the statewide vote 50-50, The News & Observer has reported. All three maps passed along party lines.
If you want to zoom in on an interactive map of the new districts to see which congressional district your house is in, or how each district might be expected to perform politically, give this map from Dave’s Redistricting App a look.
For News & Observer analysis of what the maps will mean in future elections, here is a closer look.
US congressional map
What the map shows: The new congressional map grew from 13 to 14 seats due to North Carolina’s rapid population growth in the 2020 Census.
Who is safe? The new map will have eight safe Republican seats, three safe Democratic seats and three competitive seats, of which two would lean right and one would lean left.
Possible Republican-Democrat balance: That means Republicans would be expected to win a 10-4 advantage if voters again split the statewide vote more or less evenly. It could increase to an 11-3 GOP advantage if Republicans have a strong year, and Republicans would still expect to hold an 8-6 advantage even in a strong year for Democrats.
Democrats could expect to win the two seats that include Raleigh and Durham, one of the Charlotte-area seats and potentially the district in northeastern North Carolina that abuts the Triangle.
N.C. Senate
What the map shows: How North Carolina’s 50 N.C. Senate districts will be divided across the state.
Who is safe? The new map would give Republicans 24 safe seats, which is two short of a 26-member majority.
Democrats have 17 safe seats and would have to win every competitive district to win the majority.
Possible Republican-Democrat balance: There would be nine competitive seats out of the 50 total. Five of those would lean Republican and four would lean Democratic.
Republicans would be expected to likely win a majority and could also win a veto-proof supermajority by holding all of the right-leaning competitive districts and flipping one of the left-leaning ones.
N.C. House
What the map shows: The new map shows 120 seats in the N.C. House.
Who is safe? Republicans have 55 safe seats, which is six short of a 61-member majority. Democrats would have 41 safe seats, so they would have to win 20 of the 24 competitive districts to win a majority.
Possible Republican-Democrat balance: There would be 24 competitive seats, 13 of which lean Republican. Getting to a 72-member supermajority would require Republicans to win 17 of those 24 competitive seats.
This story was originally published November 4, 2021 at 4:47 PM with the headline "Take a closer look at North Carolina’s approved political maps for Congress, legislature."
