Are PACs losing their punch?

When Joe Stewart finished his latest analysis of election spending by political action committees, he scratched his head. Why, he wondered, had the spending not grown much over the last three election cycles? Especially in a state with a growing economy and a heated political environment.

Then it dawned on him.

PACs don’t play the role they used to in a post-Citizens United world dominated by super PACs and social welfare 501(c) groups.

“The landscape is changing,” says Stewart, executive director of the N.C. Free Enterprise Foundation. “Independent expenditures make it such a different ball game.”

He found that PACs representing corporations, professional and trade groups, labor and ideologies spent $11.8 million in North Carolina in 2014.

Compare that to more than $100 million spent in the state by outside groups. That includes $83 million on the U.S. Senate race alone, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

“It just made me think, what’s the thing that might have precluded the PAC community from getting bigger,” Stewart says. “And it may be in part that dynamic of outside money.”

PACs raise money from individuals who contribute up to $5,000 per year. PACs in turn can give a candidate $5,000 per election.

Contrast that to super PACs or other groups that can take and give unlimited money to help a candidate.

The declining significance of PACs in the world of campaign finance may persuade them and their contributors to try to influence elections in other ways, through their own independent efforts.

And we’re bound to see more of that next year when North Carolina is likely to see competitive races for president, the U.S. Senate and governor – what Stewart calls the “triple full moon dynamic.”

“We’re going to see an enormous amount of outside money coming into the state in 2016,” he says. Jim Morrill

Roberts’ poll shows her on top

A poll for Charlotte Democrat Jennifer Roberts’ mayoral campaign last week showed her with a 2-to-1 edge over her nearest Democratic rival.

The survey by Washington-based Lake Research Partners showed Roberts with the support of 30 percent of likely Democratic voters in a four-way primary with incumbent Mayor Dan Clodfelter and City Council members Michael Barnes and David Howard.

Some of the 400 voters surveyed said there were as many questions about the other candidates as Roberts.

Pollster Josh Ulibarri told my colleague Taylor Batten that testing negative messages about other candidates is common practice. He said before any such questions were asked, respondents were first asked about the horse race.

John Gresham, an attorney and Clodfelter supporter, said after being asked whom he supported, he was read a series of statements about the other candidates.

“It was clear there were more negative questions about Clodfelter and Howard,” he said, adding that there was only one “negative” question about Roberts. “I know a push poll when I’m involved in one,” he said.

Brad Crone, a Roberts consultant, said it’s not unusual for surveys to test opinions of the field.

“In any poll, you’re going to test your positive and your negatives,” he said. “We’re looking for messages and issues.”

Maria Smithson, a spokeswoman for Clodfelter, said Roberts may be planning to use the favorable poll as a fundraising tool, not that she’s worried.

“I think the mayor is well-positioned to go toe-to-toe with Jennifer Roberts,” Smithson said. Jim Morrill

Winner to leave foundation

Former Charlottean Leslie Winner plans to step down in March as executive director of the Z. Smith Reynolds Foundation.

Winner, a former state senator, has headed the Winston-Salem based foundation for seven years.

“Leslie has provided matchless leadership for the Z. Smith Reynolds Foundation, and we will miss her dearly,” Lloyd Tate Jr., president of the Foundation’s board of trustees, said in a statement.

Before joining the foundation, Winner, an Asheville native, was a vice president and general counsel for the University of North Carolina system and before that legal counsel of the Charlotte Mecklenburg Board of Education. She served three terms in the Senate.

“My interest in strengthening public education aligned with a long-standing Z. Smith Reynolds focus on education,” Winner said. “I also think a community can’t just have good schools. Communities also need sound community economic development and pathways to living wage jobs, a sustainable environment and a vibrant democracy.” Jim Morrill

This story was originally published June 27, 2015 at 5:07 PM with the headline "Are PACs losing their punch?."