Fast-growing Cabarrus County could face a $67 million budget deficit by 2031
Cabarrus County could be headed toward a $67 million budget deficit within five years, according to early county projections.
The warning is based on preliminary budget projections for the 2027 fiscal year, which starts July 1, and beyond that show expenses rising faster than revenues. While the numbers are still being refined, commissioners said the early signs are concerning and highlight growing financial pressure on the county.
“It gives me heartburn,” Board Chair Laura Blackwell Lindsey said during the discussion last month. “It’s not what you want to see when you’re looking at a budget.”
For the upcoming year, county staff projected roughly $404.8 million in revenue against $418.5 million in spending, a gap of about $13.7 million. Staff identified potential adjustments that could close roughly $4.3 million of that shortfall, but even with those measures, the county would still face a deficit of more than $9 million. Meanwhile, Cabarrus is one of the fastest growing counties in North Carolina, with the population jumping 38% since 2010, according to Census data.
A five-year financial plan presented by county staff showed annual deficits growing steadily over time. Under that scenario, the projected shortfall climbs to nearly $67 million by 2031.
Budget staff projected only modest annual revenue growth, generally about 1% to 2%. Meanwhile, staff predict expenses will rise more sharply, particularly for personnel, employee benefits, education funding and other legally required services.
In the county’s five-year plan, personnel costs alone increase by more than $6 million in the first year, while contributions to education also climb annually.
Much of the county’s budget is also constrained by state law. Counties are required to fund services such as law enforcement, jail operations, court facilities, public health and behavioral health programs, limiting how much flexibility commissioners have to cut costs without affecting core services.
County officials stressed at a Jan. 5 work session that the projections are not a forecast of what will happen, but rather an illustration of where current trends could lead if no significant changes are made.
Interim County Manager Kelly Sifford said at the meeting the numbers reflect a mix of projections and early estimates that have not yet been fully vetted. She told commissioners that the budget will continue to be refined before a recommended budget is presented in May.
Commissioners are expected to take a deeper dive into the budget outlook and possible responses at a two-day budget retreat scheduled for late February, where staff will present a more detailed breakdown of revenues, expenditures and options for closing the gap.
It is not the first time in recent history that Cabarrus officials have confronted budget shortfalls. Last year, Cabarrus County Schools faced an approximately $11 million deficit, which district leaders attributed to higher-than-expected expenses, enrollment growth and lower-than-anticipated revenue.
