Who benefits from NC primary changes?

North Carolina voters should brace for an early onslaught of political advertising as candidates scramble for attention under a measure expected to pass the General Assembly next week.

Lawmakers are poised to shake up the 2016 elections by moving up the primaries for state and local offices to March 15, the same as the new date for presidential primaries. Both had been in May for decades.

That means candidates for the state House or county board would compete for attention against the likes – and money – of national contenders such as Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

“It’s going to be hard for the down-ballot candidates to get any attention,” said political scientist Michael Bitzer of Catawba College. “Ninety-five percent (of the attention) will be paid to the presidential folks. And everybody else has to try to get the leftovers.”

With the exception of 2008, when the state’s primary helped lift Democrat Barack Obama to victory over Hillary Clinton, North Carolina usually has found itself on the sidelines. By May, most presidential nominees had been decided.

Legislators say having state primaries on the same day would save money. Holding a separate election, complete with days of early voting, would cost counties more than $9 million.

“The side benefit is we’re certain it will increase participation,” said Rep. David Lewis, a Harnett County Republican who chairs the House Elections Committee. “It’s always better to have more people participate.”

Moving the primary to March also means candidates for everything from U.S. Senate to county commissioner would have to organize campaigns and file for office in early December. Filing in the past has been scheduled to begin in February.

The change means voters would confront an unusually heavy barrage of political ads over the air and through the mail.

Not only will there be a score of presidential candidates buying ads but also deep-pocketed super PACs and interest groups, often financed by wealthy donors.

And for the first time since 2008, North Carolina voters will see races for U.S. Senate and governor in addition to president – what some call “a triple witching” election. For candidates, that will raise the ante, and the cost to play.

“We expect that inventory will be tight and that would put upward pressure on rates,” said Mark Prak, counsel for the N.C. Association of Broadcasters. “The laws of supply and demand operate in that marketplace just as they do in other marketplaces.”

Advertising costs may be determined by presidential candidates and their allies, but they won’t be the only ones affected by limited supply and greater demand.

“You’re going to have all candidates on the ballot competing for access to the market,” said Paul Shumaker, a consultant to U.S. Sens. Richard Burr and Thom Tillis. “The price point will be set by the presidential candidates and by independent expenditures. It’s a new world.”

Shumaker said the Charlotte TV market will be particularly saturated because stations reach into South Carolina. Republicans in that state hold their primary Feb. 20. Democrats hold theirs a week later.

“The question is, will (other candidates) have enough money soon enough to even get into the marketplace to be heard?” said Shumaker.

Incumbent protection?

An early primary could benefit incumbents. Not only are they generally better known, but they usually have more money. And a heavier presidential turnout could prevent the kind of upsets often seen in lower turnout elections. But not everybody agrees that will be the outcome.

“Incumbents at our level don’t really have name recognition, even in our district,” said Rep. Charles Jeter, a Huntersville Republican.

Any would-be candidates who thought they could decide in the actual election year would have to change their plans.

“If you’re going to run ... you’d better have made up your mind,” Jeter said, “because filing is going to start in a few weeks as opposed to several months.”

This story was originally published September 18, 2015 at 7:22 PM with the headline "Who benefits from NC primary changes?."