The Carolinas could be Joe Biden’s firewall, but cracks have started to emerge
The Carolinas, particularly South Carolina, have long been considered a firewall for Joe Biden in his race for the Democratic presidential nomination.
But after his “gut punch” in Iowa, that wall may be starting to crack.
A poll this week in South Carolina found the former vice president still ahead in the state’s Feb. 29 primary, though his once wide lead had narrowed dramatically.
And a North Carolina survey released Thursday showed Biden’s lead shrinking as well. North Carolina’s March 3 primary is one of 16 Super Tuesday contests.
“He’s still the favorite in these two states but certainly his numbers aren’t as commanding as they used to be,” said Tom Jensen, director of Public Policy Polling. “He has been on a downward trajectory.”
Biden called his fourth-place showing in Iowa a “gut punch.” And since then a poll showed him third in New Hampshire, which holds its primary Tuesday. And there are concerns about resources.
This week Advertising Analytics reported that Biden’s campaign cut his South Carolina ad spending by nearly $120,000. He reportedly shifted it to Nevada ahead of its Feb. 22 caucuses. Earlier he’d shifted ad reservations to Iowa. It all adds up to a campaign facing stiff headwinds.
But the Carolinas have loomed as safe havens.
That’s because of Biden’s historically strong support among African Americans, due to familiarity and his long association with President Barack Obama. In South Carolina black voters are expected to make up about two-thirds of primary voters; in North Carolina, almost half.
“My gut is he’s going to be right there at a two-digit (primary) lead and he’s got a chance to have that firewall in South Carolina,” said political scientist Scott Huffmon of Rock Hill’s Winthrop University. “It’s going to be a lot closer in North Carolina.”
Some black leaders are confident the Carolinas will have Biden’s back.
“Joe Biden is the candidate that we know,” said state Sen. Marlon Kimpson of Charleston. “Joe Biden is the candidate that we trust. And I do believe that he is currently in the pole position in South Carolina. Obviously, things can change.”
But Kimpson added that Biden’s campaign needs to spend money in South Carolina, saying he has not seen or heard one TV ad or radio ad that features the former vice president.
Other African Americans say Biden shouldn’t take his black support for granted.
“Vice President Biden at his peril will assume a firewall,” said Ray McKinnon of Charlotte, a member of the Democratic National Committee, who supported Sanders in 2016 but has not endorsed anyone this year. “What all candidates have to do is work like hell to secure their base and their votes.”
Black support sliding
In few states has Biden’s campaign been as visible as in South Carolina.
This week his campaign announced Women for Biden, more than 100 women leaders throughout the state. He already had the endorsements of dozens of current and former leaders. The candidate himself has made repeated visits to the Palmetto State.
In North Carolina, on the other hand, the campaign had a single paid staffer, its state director, at the end of January. By contrast, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has over 100 and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts has around 30.
The latest Public Policy Polling survey found Biden’s African American support sliding in North Carolina.
In October, he claimed 63% of the black vote. After Iowa it measured at 39%. Much of it appeared to have gone to Bloomberg, who was third in the poll overall after Biden and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and second among African American voters.
By another measure, Biden is still strong in the Carolinas.
A McClatchy analysis of campaign finance reports showed that through December Biden has raised over $400,000 in South Carolina, far more than any rival. And in North Carolina he raised almost $700,000, again more than any Democrat.
While Bloomberg has helped erode Biden’s support in North Carolina, another billionaire, Tom Steyer, has been chipping away in South Carolina.
This week Steyer was endorsed by the cochair of the state’s Black Womens Caucus. And Charleston’s Post and Courier reported that he paid the chairman of the Legislative Black Caucus more than $43,000 to serve as a senior adviser.
The ‘excitement quotient’
Biden’s supporters believe he’ll hang on to the black vote.
“Whoever wins is going to have to have African American support — and strong African American support,” said N.C. Sen. Paul Lowe of Greensboro, who chairs the Legislative Black Caucus. “I think Joe Biden is going to be the person who can do it.”
Polls have consistently shown that Biden fares best among older voters while younger voters favor candidates such as Sanders, Warren or former Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg. They’ve often attracted larger crowds than the former vice president.
N.C. Rep. Kelly Alexander, a member of the Legislative Black Caucus, has yet to endorse anyone.
“I want a candidate who can beat (President Donald) Trump,” he said. “Someone who’s going to excite the voters here in North Carolina. I think (Biden) can beat Trump. It’s the excitement quotient that I’m still pondering.”
A recent poll found Steyer with 24% among black voters in South Carolina, second only to Biden’s 30%.
But political scientist Gibbs Knotts of the College of Charleston said he believes it’s still Biden’s contest to lose.
“Is there somebody going to emerge in this field that’s going to pull the black support away?” he said. “I just don’t see that person emerging.”
Kimpson said Biden has to keep working.
“You can lose a pole position,” he said. “And I don’t think the results over the last week have been helpful.”
Staff writer Ben Wieder of McClatchy’s Washington Bureau contributed.
This story was originally published February 7, 2020 at 5:30 AM.
