With a decade of mapmaking on the line, Democrats raise millions to flip NC legislature
Control over redistricting in North Carolina for the next decade will go to whichever political party emerges with a majority in the state legislature after this November’s elections.
The high stakes help explain why some candidates for the 170 seats in the General Assembly are raising big amounts — even more money, in some cases, than campaigns for statewide office.
“After spending a decade talking about gerrymandering, donors understand we have to control the state legislature,” said Democratic Rep. Graig Meyer of Hillsborough, one of the party’s top fundraisers.
Since Republicans have for the last decade had control over the legislature — and thus have overseen redistricting and the shape of the state’s political districts — flipping the legislature will be a tall order for Democrats. But if campaign money is any sign, Democrats are in good shape to make gains.
Since February, Democrats running for legislative seats have raised more than $6 million. That’s more than 150% of what Republicans raised.
“This is by far the best financial position we’ve been in for a decade,” Meyer said.
In the 2018 “Blue Wave” election, Democrats flipped several GOP-held seats in suburban areas and erased Republicans’ veto-proof supermajority. Now, Republicans hold 65 of 120 N.C. House seats and 29 of 50 Senate seats. So if Democrats want to take back the majority this year, they’ll need to emerge from 2020 with five more Senate seats and six more House seats.
And they’ve gotten national attention in their attempts to do so. For example, Democratic Rep. Sydney Batch’s district in southwestern Wake County is among Republicans’ best shots to take back a seat they lost in 2018. So former Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg waded into that race in June, encouraging his supporters across the country to help her out.
With her national attention, Batch raised $230,000 in the most recent quarter from mid-February through June. The only member of the House of Representatives who raised more money was Republican Speaker of the House Tim Moore.
Batch will be facing Republican challenger Erin Paré, whose $87,000 last quarter trailed Batch but was still a strong showing.
Another race in southwest Wake County looks to be closely contested by Republicans trying to recoup their 2018 losses. Democratic Sen. Sam Searcy’s Republican challenger, political newcomer and retired Marine Corps Col. Mark Cavaliero, raised nearly $350,000, most of it in a loan from himself. Searcy raised more than $64,000, of which more than half was self-funded.
Farther north in Wake County, the Senate seat currently held by retiring Republican Sen. John Alexander is up for grabs in what’s expected to be a close race between Democrat Sarah Crawford and Republican Larry Norman.
Crawford raised nearly $175,000 last quarter — with nearly $23,000 in in-kind donations from the North Carolina Democratic Party’s Senate caucus committee — compared to just $6,420 for Norman.
Democrats riding high
The trend of Democrats out-raising Republicans has also cropped up in higher profile races like those for U.S. Senate, governor, attorney general and N.C. Supreme Court, The News & Observer reported. But Republicans say not to count them out yet.
An advantage of having many incumbents in the GOP is that they have lots of money already in their campaign accounts, said Dylan Watts, the top political operative for Senate Republicans. And the Republicans running for N.C. Senate this year are going into the second half of 2020 with about $2 million more cash on hand, total, than their Democratic rivals, Watts said.
“I feel pretty strong about November already,” he said.
Meyer said that Democrats didn’t take a fundraising break earlier this spring for coronavirus, but Watts said Republicans did. An analysis of state campaign finance records shows that in the House, the Democrats more than doubled the Republicans: $3.9 million to $1.6 million. In the Senate, however, Republicans came closer, trailing Democrats $2.2 million to $1.9 million.
Watts said to expect Senate leader Phil Berger and other top Republicans to pick up steam in the coming months.
“They do now feel confident asking for money,” he said. “The economy’s starting to rebuild. Things are starting to bounce back.”
And for those Republicans who haven’t done much fundraising and are also facing either a well-funded Democratic challenger or an expected close race in November — or, typically, both — there’s always outside spending.
Help from big donors
From mid-February through June, a newly created political committee called Citizens For a Better North Carolina raised more money that any other political committee in the state except for Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and a separate Cooper-affiliated committee.
That group brought in $2.5 million and has since started spending it on a consulting firm run by veteran Republican insiders Jim Blaine and Ray Martin. Nearly all of that money came from a single group called the Good Government Coalition that lists its address as a UPS store in a Washington, D.C., suburb.
It’s not listed in state campaign finance records, but IRS records show the group is mostly funded by the N.C. Chamber of Commerce and two national GOP groups.
Campaign finance laws says groups like this aren’t allowed to directly coordinate with candidates. But there’s nothing stopping them from using public records to see which Republicans are struggling to raise money, or who might be at risk in November, and then get involved on their behalf.
Blaine said in an email they hope to eventually have around $5 million, or double what they’ve already raised, to spend on bailing out the Republicans who may be in trouble.
“Since some Republican candidates in key races — like Lisa Barnes, Ray Pickett, Mike Clampitt and Kristin Baker — are failing to raise the funds they’ll need to win in November, (Citizens For a Better North Carolina) plans to spend all of its funds before October to try to give underfunded Republicans some cover,” he said.
Pickett still hasn’t reported his most recent fundraising numbers although they were due more than a week ago. The other three raised less than $50,000 combined last quarter, state records show. The four Democrats on the other side — Rep. Joe Sam Queen, Rep. Ray Russell, and challengers Aimy Steele and Allen Wellons — raised nearly 12 times their competitors, with nearly $560,000.
Blaine has also reported spending to help other candidates including Republican Sen. Joyce Krawiec of Forsyth County. She raised just $18,000 last quarter while her Democratic challenger, Terri LeGrand, raised nearly $300,000, including around $34,000 in spending from the N.C. Democratic Party.
“I think it’s clear the Democrats are coming after that one,” said Watts, although he added that Republicans aren’t only playing defense in their efforts to keep their majority.
Two former GOP senators who were unseated by Democrats in 2018 are attempting comebacks in the Senate: Michael Lee, challenging Democratic Sen. Harper Peterson in Wilmington, and Wesley Meredith, challenging Democratic Sen. Kirk deViere in Fayetteville.
Both those races are expected to be among the closest in the state, and the candidates on both sides of the aisle have been raising large amounts of money in anticipation for that.
GOP comeback in Charlotte?
In the North Carolina House, the Charlotte suburbs could also be a battleground once again. In 2018, Democratic Rep. Rachel Hunt won the seat she now holds by spending more than $1 million to narrowly unseat Republican Bill Brawley. They have a rematch set for this year.
That’s also the case in another suburban Charlotte seat, now held by Democratic Rep. Christy Clark. The Republican she toppled in 2018, John Bradford, is seeking a comeback too.
Meyer said he expects Hunt to have an easier time this year because her district was redrawn in a recent gerrymandering lawsuit, he said — but Clark’s race could end up being the most expensive in the state this time around.
Watts and Meyer both said 2020 could end up being one of the most expensive state legislative campaigns in history, and not just because of redistricting being at stake.
There are also elections for president, governor, Congress and more, which will likely buy up hundreds of millions of dollars in ads here. Candidates in the less prominent races like state legislature will have to spend a lot just to let voters know they’re on the ballot, too.
“This year’s going to be unbelievably expensive,” Watts said. “It’s going to be tough for us to cut through all the noise.”
Meyer agreed, saying Democrats hope to spend $10 million just on their efforts to take back the House. That doesn’t count all the other races on the ballot, or the outside spending that will be flowing in from national groups on both sides of the aisle.
“If you add up all the campaign spending, it’ll probably be $1 billion,” he said.
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This story was originally published July 20, 2020 at 2:49 PM with the headline "With a decade of mapmaking on the line, Democrats raise millions to flip NC legislature."
CORRECTION: An earlier version of this article double-counted campaigns’ loan proceeds, inflating the fundraising totals for Republican challengers Mark Cavaliero and Erin Paré and Democratic Rep. Joe Sam Queen.
