Sens. Tillis, Graham hope Supreme Court battle solidifies support from GOP voters
Republican Andy Stevens of Stokes County doesn’t particularly like GOP U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis.
He says Tillis sorely disappointed gun advocates like him when he served as speaker of the North Carolina House. Stevens didn’t vote for him when he ran six years ago.
“I have not been a fan of Thom Tillis,” Stevens told the Observer. “But the need to fill the Supreme Court with conservatives is an overriding issue right now.”
In both Carolinas, Republican senators in tight races are hoping the prospect of filling the latest Supreme Court vacancy helps unite a Republican base that has often been wary of them. A unified base could be crucial to both.
In North Carolina Tillis has trailed Democrat Cal Cunningham in recent polls. In solidly red South Carolina, Sen. Lindsey Graham and Democrat Jaime Harrison are in a surprisingly close race, which polls show as a virtual tossup.
A new Meredith College Poll released this week showed Tillis’s approval among N.C. Republicans almost 20 points lower than that of President Donald Trump. One out of three Republicans did not approve of the job Tillis is doing.
In a survey last week by CBS News and YouGov, only 82% of S.C. Republicans supported Graham while Harrison enjoyed the support of 94% of Democrats. Ten percent of the Republicans were undecided.
Though Graham has re-cast himself in recent years as a close ally — and golf partner — of Trump’s, many S.C. Republicans still haven’t forgotten or forgiven his earlier record as a moderate who often crossed the aisle to work with Democrats. And during his brief run for president in 2016, Graham described then-opponent Trump as a “race-baiting, xenophobic bigot.”
“For a long time, he was the least popular Republican in the state, with approval ratings in the 50s,” said Scott Huffmon, a political scientist at Rock Hill’s Winthrop University. “Tim Scott (the state’s other GOP senator) and Nikki Haley (the former Republican governor) — their approval ratings were through the roof.”
Jessica Taylor, an analyst with the Cook Political Report, said Arizona, where Sen. Martha McSally faces a stiff challenge, is the only other state where a GOP senator is running far behind the president among Republicans.
“At times in their careers both have bucked Trump on issues,” Taylor said of the Carolinas senators. “You see Tillis and Graham coming in very enthusiastically behind Trump as a way of shoring up their support.”
Both of their Democratic opponents appear determined not to alienate Trump voters.
Cunningham barely mentioned Trump in his two debates against Tillis. Harrison is hoping to win over just enough Trump voters who can’t see themselves supporting Graham.
The former aide to U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn, D-S.C., is focused on S.C. issues and has declined invitations to bash Trump. On The New Yorker Radio Hour podcast last weekend, host David Remnick asked him twice if he agreed with Graham’s past characterization of Trump as a bigot. He refused to take the bait.
“My grandma taught me some good Southern manners,” Harrison said. “And part of that is that you don’t throw names at people. You don’t castigate folks. You may not like what they do, but you try to find the positive and move forward on that.”
‘Media blowtorch’
Both Republicans are banking on the court fight to shore up party support.
The Senate is expected to vote on Trump’s nomination of conservative Amy Coney Barrett to replace the late liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who died Sept. 18. For many Republicans, the court fight — and what they see as the importance of conservative jurists — underscores the need for conservative senators.
On Tuesday Tillis unveiled a web site called JoeBidenjudges.com. On it he claims Cunningham would support Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s court nominees who Tillis says would support socialism and oppose religious freedom. Biden has not released the names of any prospective appointments.
Like Biden, Cunningham has said Ginsburg’s replacement should be nominated by the president elected in November.
Graham, meanwhile, appears to be counting on his high-profile role as Senate Judiciary chairman, where his job will be to help Barrett win a seat on the Supreme Court.
Huffmon said Graham’s approval ratings in the state shot up nearly 25 percentage points in 2018 after he turned “pit bull” against Democrats during the Judiciary Committee hearings for Trump’s last high court nominee, Brett Kavanaugh.
Will Graham’s televised efforts on behalf of Barrett spur those Republicans still on the fence to vote for him?
They could, said Rob Godfrey, a former spokesman for both Gov. Haley and the S.C. Republican Party.
“The court fight rallies people on both sides, but in South Carolina, for now, conservatives outnumber moderates and liberals, so the nomination battle is a break for Senator Graham down the stretch,” Godfrey said. “He understands that, and he is going to lean into the fight.”
Graham, who wrote on his Facebook page that he would not “be intimidated by the Radical left,” sounds like he’s relishing a return to the partisan spotlight. “I don’t know what it is about me and moments and lightning,” he said at a campaign event this month, “but lightning has struck again.”
In the CBS News/YouGov poll, 54 percent of South Carolinians polled said the Senate should vote on the Supreme Court nominee before the Nov. 3 election; 46 percent said it should wait until after the election.
“Confirmation hearings will be an earned media blowtorch for Sen. Graham,” said Godfrey. “People who could otherwise turn off, or click out of campaign advertisements won’t be able to escape the starring role Senator Graham plays in the biggest news story of the fall. It will remind them of his stature, his star-power, and his ability to deliver for the people of the state.”
Court ‘a powerful sway’
Jane Billelo, a conservative activist from Asheville who’s on the board of the state’s Conservative Coalition, has heard doubts about Tillis.
“There is much hair-pulling over Tillis,” she said. “I am finding the same lukewarm to chilly reception regarding him. But the Supreme Court choice hanging in the balance seems to be a powerful sway for votes for Tillis.”
Tami Fitzgerald, executive director of the N.C. Values Coalition, told the Observer last week that she and other evangelicals were “on the fence” about Tillis. Ginsburg’s death changed that.
“(Tillis’s) assurance that he will support the president’s nominee and work to confirm that nominee has helped me see how important it is to have him return to the U.S. Senate,” Fitzgerald said.
And Paul Valone, president of the gun rights group Grass Roots North Carolina, has had plenty of qualms about Tillis. But he said “a vote for Cal Cunningham is a vote to make (New York Sen.) Chuck Schumer Senate Majority Leader.”
Tillis and Graham risk alienating independent voters by supporting Trump. And in both states there are alternative choices. In both Carolinas, there are Constitution Party candidates. In North Carolina there’s also a Libertarian Party candidate.
And the Supreme Court fight cuts both ways.
The CBS Poll found 60% of N.C. Democrats were more motivated to vote because of the vacancy compared with 47% of Republicans.
“How do you appeal to the Republican base so they’ll be excited about you at the same time not alienate swing voters? It presents a problem that is not easily solvable,” said Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson, who’s working for Cunningham.
“He has a real challenge with Trump Republicans,” Jackson said. “They don’t trust him. They’ve booed him at numerous Trump rallies. And it’s the most motivated part of the Republican base. . . He has to figure out how to appeal more to that group, show he is a true conservative and is one of them, then . . . he’s got to find a way to appeal to suburban college educated largely white females, who have a great concern about coronavirus, who distrust and disapprove of rhetoric Trump has had.”
Court battle a big factor
Both Tillis and Graham have tied themselves closely to the president. Trump is expected to carry South Carolina easily. He’s essentially tied with Biden in North Carolina.
For Tillis, the court fight is likely to buck up support from GOP skeptics.
“I’ll trade 6 more years of Tillis as a Senator for that . . . as well as other decisions (that) a conservative Court will decide,” Stevens posted this week on Facebook. “Tillis will vote to confirm Judge Amy Barrett and perhaps a further pick or two in a Trump second term.”
Many Republicans expect their party to rally around Tillis.
“I believe Trump supporters will go red all the way,” said Tillis supporter Alan Pugh, a member of former Gov. Jim Martin’s administration.
Though South Carolina remains a Republican state, it’s no sure thing that Graham’s role in the court battle will lift him to victory.
“Graham has worked hard to bolster his approval with Republicans, by tying himself to Trump,” said Huffmon, who directs the Winthrop Poll in South Carolina. “But his love among ardent Republicans isn’t deep or abiding.”
That could offer Harrison a “narrow path” to an upset win, Huffmon added, if enough Trump Republicans deny their votes to Graham by opting for Harrison, writing in another candidate, going for a third-party choice or just skipping the Senate contest altogether.
“That’s what it’s going to take for Harrison to win.”
Brian Murphy of McClatchy’s Washington Bureau contributed.
This story was originally published September 30, 2020 at 6:00 AM.