‘How low can you go?’: Timing of July election leaves room for concern in Charlotte
CLT Politics is a new weekly analysis of political news and events in Charlotte and across the region published Thursday by The Charlotte Observer.
Since 1994, the year I was born, only one North Carolina primary election in a non-presidential year topped 20% turnout.
That isn’t great. And it’s possible we’ll soon witness something even worse.
We won’t know until Tuesday night how many people vote in the primary election May 17. It could be on par with previous non-presidential years, with somewhere between 12% and 20% of eligible voters casting ballots.
As of Tuesday, more than 21,400 people have voted early in Mecklenburg County. That’s 400 more than in the 2018 primary, and there are still a few days to go. Statewide, about 323,000 people have voted early so far, or about 4.4% of total registered voters. In the 2018 primary, about 296,000 people voted early; in 2014, about 370,000 people voted early.
But it’s the election after that where the number could really plummet.
Unlike U.S. Senate and the state legislature, which will hold their general election in November and could see decent turnout considering the stakes, Charlotte City Council and the Mayor will have a general election on July 26.
The timing leaves plenty of room for concern.
Susan Roberts, a professor of political science at Davidson College, declined to give me a prediction on just how few people might get to the polls, but she expects turnout to be worryingly low.
“It’s really the politicos who will turn out,” she told me, including the friends and family of candidates. “Things just don’t get done in July.”
Turnout might be low for multiple reasons. Primarily, people just aren’t expecting July elections. After they vote in May, even some avid voters might take a breath and think they’ve got till November to worry about politics.
Then there’s the issue of people being on vacation, and, unfortunately, that fewer people vote on down-ballot races such as City Council and district attorney than they do for races like those for U.S. House or Senate.
So why does it matter?
In some cases, it won’t in July. Councilman Ed Driggs, a Republican, will win because there are no Democrats challenging him. In three City Council districts, whoever wins the Democratic primary is guaranteed to get a seat.
But there are races where it will matter.
Republican incumbent Councilman Tariq Bokhari will face a Democratic competitor in his swing district. In the at-large City Council race, several Republicans have made a good showing so far as well.
Roberts said low turnout could make it harder for candidates challenging incumbents, who already have a loyal base of supporters — the kinds of people who would show up to a July primary.
Republican Kyle Luebke, for example, has raised nearly $30,000 so far — significantly less than the Democratic incumbents, but not an insignificant amount of money.
It’s also worth noting turnout reflects a community’s engagement in how their tax dollars are spent. Local politics have the opportunity to engage people about issues that are quite literally in their own back yards — what gets built next door; what happens to that giant oak tree down the street; and when are they going to plug that pothole on your way home along Central Avenue?
Asked about the midterms and the local July elections, Roberts likened voter turnout to limbo: “How low can you go?”
There is no precedent for a July general election, or at least there hasn’t been one in decades.
Roberts said voters need cues. For the Republicans in the May primary, the idea of Trumpism being on the ballot — with Rep. Ted Budd up against former Gov. Pat McCrory, among others — will be cue enough. For Democrats in November, abortion and bringing a Black woman to the U.S. Senate will be at top of voters’ minds.
For any candidate or political party wanting to see the true opinions of Charlotteans reflected in July, they’ll need to find a cue of their own. Better yet, voters will need to find a cue that matters to them.
This story was originally published May 12, 2022 at 6:00 AM.
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